Weekly Market Update

Data This Week Points to a 25bps September Rate Cut After a solid bout of data yesterday that dispelled any notion that the consumer was retrenching, yields jumped higher with the 2yr back over 4% and the 10yr approaching that level. In fact, this week has produced solid data that has pushed odds of a…

July CPI Keeps September Rate Cut in Play After a knee-jerk back up in yields following the CPI report, yields are dipping lower again as traders see the CPI report as not so bad after all. Frankly, CPI came as expected, but investors may have been hoping for more softness. Nevertheless, it should be good…

Inflation and Retail Sales Headline this Week’s New Information  Treasury yields are waffling around unchanged this morning as the lack of a weekend catalyst has allowed the dust to continue to settle from the volatility of early last week. This week provides plenty of new inputs for Fed policy as inflation data will be followed…

Markets Rethinking Recession Risk Treasury yields are edging lower this morning after they popped yesterday in the wake of better-than-expected initial jobless claims reducing some of the recession angst. Equity futures are lower into the open and that modest risk-off tone before a weekend, and after a big runup yesterday, is not surprising.  There’s no…

A Tentative Calm Returns to the Markets Treasury yields continue to drift higher this morning as the lack of new recession-related catalysts, and reduced volatility, contribute to a much calmer market than was the case on Friday and Monday. The lack of potential market-moving data today should hopefully continue the trend. Currently, the 10yr note…

Markets Continue to React Dramatically to Soft Jobs Report Treasury yields are lower again this morning as the rout in equities from Friday’s soft jobs report continues this morning and is spreading globally. The moves are nearing historic levels and are prompting calls from some quarters for the Fed to employ an emergency cut, but…

July Jobs Report Reveals Acceleration in Labor Market Softening Nonfarm payroll gains for July were 114 thousand vs. 175 thousand expected and 179 thousand in June (revised down from an initial 206 thousand). May was revised lower by 2 thousand jobs, bringing the two-month revisions to -29 thousand and that continues a year-long trend of…

Meeting Highlights  As expected, the Fed kept the funds rate range unchanged at 5.25% – 5.50%, and while the tone of the statement was less hawkish and didn’t overtly hint at a September rate cut, Powell’s post-meeting press conference did. They did, however, make some substantive changes to the statement that indicates the focus going…

Fed Prepared to Hold in the Face of Softening Data If we told you that overnight the Bank of Japan raised rates, European inflation readings surprised to the upside, and renewed hostilities in the Middle East boosted oil prices you would probably bet Treasury yields would be up, but you would be wrong. While global…

Prepare for a Boatload of First-Tier Data and Events this Week Treasury yields are lower again this morning, but with plenty of first-tier data on tap this week, not to mention several central bank meetings, including the FOMC on Wednesday, there will be plenty of catalysts to spur trading reactions, so strap in for a…

June PCE Comes as Expected Keeping Hopes for a September Rate Cut Alive and Well Treasury yields are lower this morning on the back of another positive read on inflation, this time it was the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation series. While coming in mostly as expected, it continues the theme of cooler inflation readings since…

Is Peer Pressure Building at the Fed? Treasury yields are lower this morning as disappointing PMI numbers from Europe added to the rate-cutting case on the Continent and it’s putting a little peer pressure on the Fed to join the party. In that regard, former NY Fed President Bill Dudley is adding to that sentiment…