Weekly Market Update

Treasury yields are moving slightly lower this morning as November CPI came in mostly as expected which firms up odds for a rate cut next week and belied some whispers that the report could be on the hot side. We suspect, however, that further improvements in the months ahead may be hard to come by…

Treasury yields are edging higher this morning as some of the post-jobs report rally is reversed, and inflation reports loom on the horizon. The quick fall of the Assad Regime in Syria adds to the geo-political risk in a region already full of it, but so far there hasn’t been a flight-to-safety rally in Treasuries….

November nonfarm payrolls rose 224 thousand, just above the 215 thousand expected and 36 thousand in October (revised up from an initial 12 thousand). September was also revised up by 32 thousand jobs to 225 thousand, which goes against the year-long trend of lower revisions. Given, all the noise from hurricanes and strikes, the three-month…

Treasury yields are higher this morning as some easing in the Korean political drama and decent labor market data so far this week, is putting pressure on Treasuries across the curve. The ISM Services Index remains to be seen at 10ET, so there is still a possibility for additional volatility (more on that below). Currently, the 10yr…

Treasury yields are higher this  morning as the light volume rally from Friday is partially reversed as more traders return to their posts. Plenty of first-tier data is on tap this week and Fed speak gets started with Fed Governor Waller and NY Fed President Williams both on tap later this afternoon. They are some…

Treasury yields are a touch lower this morning as a deluge of reports start to roll in. The big one, however, core PCE, will come at 10am ET so expect some further moves in yields before thoughts of Thanksgiving take over. Currently, the 10yr Treasury is yielding 4.26%, down 4bps on the day, while the 2yr…

Treasury yields are lower this  morning as both equities and bonds are applauding Trump’s Treasury Secretary pick (more on that below). With a holiday-shortened week and no data on Friday, the incoming information will be stuffed into the first three days this week, especially Wednesday. Currently, the 10yr Treasury is yielding 4.30%, down 10bps on…

Contractionary eurozone PMIs, both in services and manufacturing, have Treasury yields a touch lower this morning as the divergence between the US’s growth profile and the eurozone’s struggles widens. Even the UK saw its PMIs disappoint expectations while the services side clings to a 50.0 reading, right at the dividing line between expansion and contraction….

Treasury yields are a touch higher this morning as some of the fight-to-safety trades yesterday in the wake of Russian nuclear saber-rattling has cooled some today with Putin expressing interest in a Trump peace plan with Ukraine (more on that below). As candidates continue to be named for various positions in the upcoming new Administration,…

Treasury yields are mixed this morning with the short end trading in the green while longer durations are seeing slightly higher yields. With new economic data on the light side this week, trading will be dominated by news from the incoming Administration, and we also get market bell weather Nvidia reporting after the close on…

Treasury yields are higher this morning as a hawkishly-received speech from Chair Powell yesterday mixes with decent retail sales numbers and hotter-than-expected import/export prices. It all has the market rethinking a December rate cut, although we still think it happens. Currently, the 10yr Treasury is yielding 4.48%, up 6bps on the day, while the 2yr…

Treasury yields are lower on the day as some bets were circulating that CPI would come hotter-than-expected. It didn’t and that led to a dip in yields. While CPI didn’t surprise to the upside, it didn’t show much improvement either and that will have traders marking down rate cut expectations in 2025 (more on that…