Weekly Market Update

Treasury Yields Hit 15-Year Highs Treasury yields are once again higher this morning with the 10yr Treasury hitting its highest yield in 15 years. It’s currently at 4.32% which matches yields last visited in 2007. The 10yr yield has risen 42bps this week since it hit an intra-day low on Monday of 3.90%. The 2yr…

Treasury Yields Higher on Hot UK CPI Treasury yields are higher this morning and yes, it’s again off news from the UK. The 10yr Treasury, which yielded a low of 3.96% yesterday hit a new cycle high of 4.11% this morning. Yields across the Treasury curve are following in similar fashion and equity futures are…

Treasury Prices Higher on More UK News Treasury prices are higher this morning and it’s again off news from the UK. The 10yr Treasury, which ended Friday at 4.02%, the highest closing yield of this cycle, is currently at 3.92%. Yields across the Treasury curve are following in similar fashion and equity futures are pointing…

Examining Bond Portfolio Trends: Third Quarter 2022 Beginning in May 2012, we started tracking  portfolio trends of our bond accounting customers here at SouthState|DuncanWilliams.  At present, we account for over 130 client portfolios with a combined book value of $13.7 billion (not including SouthState Bank), or $105 million on average per portfolio.  Twelve months earlier,…

Treasury Selling Exhausted After September CPI? The rebound in Treasury prices that began yesterday after the downdraft caused by the hot inflation numbers is continuing this morning. The 10yr note is currently up another 14/32nds in price to yield 3.88%. The 2yr is also up with the yield at 4.41%. That’s down from a high…

PPI Provides Prelude to CPI The UK is in the news again with some controversy over when their emergency gilt-buying operation will end. It is set to end this Friday and BoE Governor Bailey indicated this hasn’t changed. Nevertheless, some have speculated it could be extended and that has generated increased volatility that temporarily sent…

Treasuries Rethink a Fed Pivot Treasury yields are higher this morning as investors rethink the probabilities of a Fed pivot anytime soon. While the UK backed off from its inflation-inducing fiscal plan, the central bank of Australia hiked rates by 25bps when 50bps was expected, and the flight-to-safety trade around Credit Suisse Bank all aided…

The week opens with Treasuries rallying on a combination of flight-to-safety and talk that yield highs for this cycle may be in place. Since touching 4% last Wednesday the 10yr yield has fallen to 3.68% this morning, up more than a point in price. The flight-to-safety component revolves around rumors that Credit Suisse Bank is…

The UK continues to dominate the trading this week, and this morning the Bank of England said they would temporarily cease their quantitative tightening program and instead turn to temporary quantitative easing, or long bond buying, in order to “restore orderly market conditions.”   Volatility in both the currency and fixed income markets started after…

Now that the FOMC meeting has come and gone, and the Treasury and equity markets have resumed their selling as a consequence, let’s take a look at those forecasts and see what they might tell us.   A year ago, the Fed was declaring rates would be lower for longer, and that they wouldn’t be…

With another hawkish FOMC announcement due on Wednesday afternoon, Treasuries are not waiting around as the selling has already begun this morning. The 2yr Treasury is yielding 3.94%, a new cycle high, while the 10yr Treasury is trying to push above 3.50%. It peaked at 3.52% earlier this morning but currently sits at 3.48%. If…

Another round of global risk asset selling has our markets ready to open lower and Treasuries are going along for the ride. S&P 500 equity futures are indicated lower by 51 points to 3868. The index bottomed at 3685 in June, so still a distance away but a retest of that low seems to be…