Weekly Market Update

It’s All About the Fed Today As we enter Fed Day, Treasury yields are steepening just a bit, but it will mostly be a low volume affair until we get to the 2pm ET announcement. The 10yr finished about 10bps lower in yield yesterday off the cool CPI report and closed at the psychologically important…

Investors Await Busy Week Treasury yields are lower this morning as the market braces for a heavy load of new information headlined by tomorrow’s November CPI reading and Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting. The 10yr is currently yielding 3.53%, up 14/32nds in price while the 2yr is yielding 4.33%, up 1/32nds in price.   With the holidays…

Hot November PPI Unsettles Market Before Next Tuesday’s CPI Treasury yields are higher this morning off a hotter-than-expected PPI that has the market unsettled as we approach next Tuesday’s CPI reading and Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting. We did spy some one-off items that make the report a little noisy, and the YoY numbers continue to move…

Recession Angst Grows Treasury yields are lower this morning as the market eyes the approach of 2023 and the likelihood of slower economic growth. Despite the Chinese government easing some Covid restrictions this week, investors spied weak Chinese trade data and what that may foretell about the global growth story in 2023 and that is…

Investors Remain Unconvinced About Fed’s Higher-for-Longer Treasury yields are higher this morning as investors rethink the Friday afternoon rally that sent the 10yr from a post-jobs report high of 3.63% to a low of 3.47%.  Some signals from China of easing covid restrictions are putting pressure on Treasuries on the belief that a more lenient…

Powell on Tap Today Treasury yields are higher this morning as the second look at third quarter GDP was better than expected (2.9% vs. 2.6% first estimate) and the price index rose to 4.6% vs. 4.5% in the first estimate. While it’s backward-looking data it does show the degree of strength the economy was carrying…

China Unrest Has Market in a Risk-Off Mood Treasury yields are mixed to unchanged while stock futures are lower this morning as Covid-related restrictions in China prompted protests, and renewed concerns that increased lockdowns will slow global growth and add fresh supply chain problems. The 10yr did reach a yield of 3.62% in overseas trading…

Fears of Renewed Chinese Lockdowns Have Treasury Prices Higher Treasury yields and stock futures are lower this morning as a few Covid-related deaths in China renewed concerns that the Chinese government may resort to another round of lockdowns that would dim global growth and create more supply chain woes. The 10yr is yielding 3.77% up…

Market Remains Resistant to Higher Funds Rate Projections Treasury yields and stock futures are a bit higher this morning as the market continues to digest the latest Fed speak. The 10yr is yielding 3.79% up from the 3.67% low yield on Wednesday The 2yr is currently yielding 4.48%, up from the 4.29% low from last…

Retail Sales Beat Can’t Dim Treasury Rally Treasury yields are trading mostly around unchanged this morning and stock futures indicated slightly lower as the market digests some economic releases. Despite the unchanged nature of today’s early trading the 10yr Treasury is retaining the rally from last Thursday’s post-CPI reaction. The 10yr is yielding 3.76%, near…

Fed Speak Tries to Douse Market Enthusiasm Treasury yields are slightly higher this morning and stock futures indicated lower as some weekend Fed speak tried to dim expectations that the Fed is close to the end of its rate-hiking campaign. Despite the Fed jawboning, the 10yr Treasury is still retaining much of the rally from…

October CPI Likely to Bolster Fed Hiking Intentions Treasury yields are slightly higher this morning and stock futures indicated higher as the market awaits tomorrow’s mid-term elections, Fed Speak, and the October CPI reading on Thursday. The 10yr Treasury is yielding 4.16% while the 2yr is currently yielding 4.71%. The 2yr yield did trade as…