Correspondent Blog

Another Goldilocks Report The December personal income and spending numbers, along with the PCE inflation series, are out this morning and were pretty much in line with the Goldilocks-like GDP report from yesterday. Good growth on the back of healthy consumer spending, while inflation continues to trend lower. It’s doesn’t improve the odds of a…

Treasuries Find a Bid as Supply and GDP Loom The risk-on tone has returned this morning and once again has spread across to Treasuries. Investors are perhaps emboldened by a well-received 2yr auction yesterday that found strong demand. However, the Treasury will be back today selling $61 billion in 5yr notes so those results could…

Risk-On Tone Prevails As Investors Await Updated Inflation Numbers The risk-on tone that took flight on Friday is back again with equity futures pointing to more gains, and record highs, and Treasuries are also finding a bid as investors are in a buying mood as they await updated inflation numbers at the tail end of…

Fed Pushback on March Rate Cut Continues Treasuries are finding another tough go of it to close out the week as solid economic data meets Fed pushback on March rate cut expectations, and when you add in what is normally a seasonally tough time of year, it’s not surprising to see the current weakness.  Presently,…

December Retail Sales Beats Forecast, Putting Treasuries Under Pressure A hotter UK CPI report had Treasuries on the back foot as US trading began, and the strong retail sales numbers for December only added to the pressure, with short tenors backpedaling as the more aggressive rate-cutting expectations are dialed back a bit.  With the consumer…

Treasuries Rally on Cool PPI Report as March Rate Cut Odds Increase A cool PPI report has Treasuries rallying, especially on the short end, as March rate cut odds got a boost from the inflation numbers (more on that below). With the Fed’s preferred inflation series, PCE, not coming until Jan. 26, PPI provides a…

Examining Bond Portfolio Trends: Fourth Quarter 2023 Beginning in May 2012, we started tracking  portfolio trends of our bond accounting customers here at SouthState|DuncanWilliams.  At present, we account for over 130 client portfolios with a combined book value of $14.2 billion (not including SouthState Bank’s portfolio), or $109 million on average per portfolio.  Twelve months…

Treasuries Trade Well into Looming Supply and CPI Treasuries continue to trade well this week after a tough start to the year last week, and that positive tone comes even with new supply on tap and a CPI report looming tomorrow. Presently, the 10yr Treasury is yielding 3.99%, up 7/32nds in price and the 2yr…

Treasury Prices Lift as December CPI Awaits on Thursday Treasuries open the week in the green as some of the luster of the jobs report has dimmed, but upcoming supply and CPI looming on Thursday could keep a lid on rallies. The Treasury will sell $52 billion of 3yr notes on Tuesday and $37 billion…

December Jobs Report Beats Expectations but with Some Noise Nonfarm payroll gains came in better than expected with 216 thousand new jobs vs. 175 thousand expected and 173 thousand in November (revised lower from an initial 199 thousand).  Private sector jobs increased  by 164 thousand vs. 130 thousand expected and 136 thousand in November. Revisions…

Investors Start the Year in a Tentative Mood The second business day of the year brings more selling across the Treasury curve as some of the sharp rally in November and December is partially reversed. Upcoming Treasury supply next week is also working against better bids, as investors start the new year in a tentative…

Inflation Numbers Continue to Improve in November This morning’s PCE inflation numbers should have been friendly for Treasuries as they came in cooler than expectations but a large pick-up in durable goods orders, led by aircraft, tempered the PCE-inspired bids. Durable goods orders for November rose 5.4%, easily beating the 2.5% forecast and that offset…