Correspondent Blog

Treasury yields are again trading around unchanged this morning as the PPI report for September came in without too much surprise and that leaves traders looking for a quiet day before a long three-day weekend. Currently, the 10yr Treasury is yielding 4.10%, up 1bp on the day, while the 2yr is yielding 3.97%, down 3bp…

Treasury yields are mostly unchanged this morning as investors mark time before tomorrow’s CPI report, and 10yr supply later today. Also, as we mention below, the twin hurricanes of Helene and Milton are likely to make a mess of the October jobs report which could make it harder to tell if September’s strength was a…

The recalibration in the fixed income markets continues after Friday’s surprisingly strong jobs report. Futures markets have dialed back thoughts of 50bps rate cuts, and new supply this week will also keep rally attempts on a short leash. Given the magnitude of the yield back-ups, we suspect it will entice enough interest that the auctions…

 The September jobs report surprised to the upside across most measures and seems to argue for a 25bps rate cut in November, at most, but the October jobs report will have the final say on that as it drops just before the November FOMC meeting. September nonfarm payrolls rose 254 thousand vs. 150 thousand expected…

With geo-political saber-rattling taking to the skies over Israel last night, reports that no major damage from the missile barrage has left the flight-to-safety trade wanting and Treasuries are on the back foot this morning. But with Israel pledging a retaliatory response the story is far from over. A somewhat positive ADP employment report (more…

With the Fed having moved the full employment mandate into the bus driver’s seat as to policy, this week will provide a raft of new employment data to ponder in the 25 or 50bps rate-cutting question. The headline will be Friday’s BLS jobs report for September but before then the Job Opening and Labor Turnover…

Treasury yields are a bit lower as the Fed’s preferred inflation measure came in slightly cooler than expected, but the YoY rate ticked up from 2.6% to 2.7% as tough base effects (a .008% MoM rolled off from last year) make YoY gains in the second half of this year challenging. On net, the report…

More Indications of Labor Market Weakness If you’re looking to check boxes on what could force another 50bps cut in November, you got one yesterday. The Conference Board’s September release showed a considerable slide in confidence (from 105.6 to 98.7) and while that rivals the 97ish prints in June and April, it was the labor…

Fed Speak Should Add Color to Last Week’s 50bps Cut  Treasury yields are under pressure as coming supply and early Fed speak is of the dovish variety which is increasing odds that the outsized rate cut last week may be followed by more. That increases odds that a recession, or material slowing, is avoided. The…

So, it was 50bps. What’s Next? Treasury yields are waffling around unchanged this morning, and with an empty economic docket for today investors are likely to keep the market rangebound. The large risk-on move yesterday in equities did bump yields higher, but after a brief foray above 3.75% 10yr yields fell back to the low…

Meeting Highlights  Well, the 25 or 50bps rate cut debate has been settled with the Fed cutting the funds rate by 50bps moving the target rate range to 4.75% – 5.00%.  The updated 2024 rate forecast, or dot plot, now sees nearly another 50bps in rate cuts in 2024 ending the year at 4.375%. That…

Will it be 25 Basis Points or 50? Treasury yields are backing up this morning as the market awaits the FOMC’s rate decision and updated forecasts this afternoon. The debate over 25 or 50 continues so the Fed’s decision will generate volatility but which way? Who knows, but the levels we see this morning aren’t…