FOMC and CPI Share This Week’s Spotlight

FOMC and CPI Share This Week’s Spotlight Treasury yields are higher as they trade in sympathy with higher European yields as incumbent parties in Europe suffered weekend election losses as far-right politicians gained, and that unsettled euro markets. More Treasury supply this week will also keep Treasuries on the back foot, and of course, Wednesday’s…

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May Jobs Report Beats Expectations, but With Conflicting Signals

May Jobs Report Beats Expectations, but With Conflicting Signals Nonfarm payroll gains for May were 272 thousand vs. 185 thousand expected and 165 thousand in April (revised down from an initial 175 thousand). March was revised lower by 5 thousand jobs, and that continues a year-long trend of downward revisions. The gain in May jobs…

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Softer May Data Providing a Continuing Treasury Bid

Softer May Data Providing a Continuing Treasury Bid Treasuries are finding more bids as a string of softish reports so far this week have traders expecting more of the same with today’s data. ADP already reported private sector job growth below expectations, but the ISM Services report for May awaits at 10am ET. Currently, the…

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May Jobs Report Headlines Busy Week of Data

May Jobs Report Headlines Busy Week of Data Treasuries are rallying in sympathy to lower bond yields in Europe as the ECB readies an expected 25bp rate cut this week, despite the latest inflation numbers that were a bit hotter-than-expected. The lack of new supply this week is probably helping bids as well, but the…

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April PCE Inflation as Expected but Spending Slows

April PCE Inflation as Expected but Spending Slows Treasuries are rallying a bit after this morning’s Personal Income and Spending Report saw inflation as expected but with definite slowing in spending (more on that below). Currently, the 10yr note is yielding 4.50%, down 5bps on the day while the 2yr is yielding 4.90%, down 3bps…

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New Supply Keeping Treasuries Under Pressure

New Supply Keeping Treasuries Under Pressure Treasuries are still feeling some pressure this morning after the so-so 2yr and 3yr auctions from yesterday, boosted along with the standard hawkish Fed Speak. Today offers more new supply in the form of 7yr notes so the mood may not improve until we’re past that event. Currently, the…

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Don’t Count on a Slowing Economy Just Yet

Don’t Count on a Slowing Economy Just Yet Treasury yields are a bit higher this morning after a better-than-expected preliminary durable goods report for April and that follows a better-than-expected S&P May PMI report yesterday. So, as questions return as to whether the economy is really slowing, yields find themselves on the back front as…

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Fed Speak Continues to Promise Higher-for-Longer

Fed Speak Continues to Promise Higher-for-Longer Treasury yields are moving a bit higher in sympathy with a hotter-than-expected UK CPI print. Supply could also be weighing slightly on the market with $16 billion in 20yr notes being auctioned this afternoon. Meanwhile, equity investors will be focused on the Nvidia earnings after the bell and that…

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Treasury Yields Drift Higher as New Supply Weighs on Market

Treasury Yields Drift Higher as New Supply Weighs on Market Treasury yields are moving a bit higher as supply weighs on the market, but a dearth of data this week should keep any moves limited. Corporate supply will be heavy this week, with most of it frontloaded into today and tomorrow, while a 20yr Treasury…

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Are Consumers Finally Starting to Buckle Under Higher Rates?

Are Consumers Finally Starting to Buckle Under Higher Rates? Treasuries are drifting around unchanged as investors ready for the weekend. Fed speak yesterday was pretty much on script as to higher-for-longer and policy is in a good place for the time being.  A couple more Fed officials (Williams and Daly) go today but one is…

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Treasuries Rally on Friendlier Inflation and Slowing Retail Sales

Treasuries Rally on Friendlier Inflation and Slowing Retail Sales Treasuries are rallying on a better inflation report for April – not great but better than the first quarter- and retail sales that disappointed and adds to other recent reports that point to some slowing in both jobs and consumption (more on both below). Rate-cutting odds…

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Inflation Week Arrives

Inflation Week Arrives Treasuries open Inflation Week in the green as investors look ahead to PPI numbers tomorrow followed by the headlining CPI Report on Wednesday. Obviously, investors are hoping for signs of cooling after the string of hot inflation numbers in the first quarter. Currently, the 10yr note is yielding 4.47%, up 7/32nds in…

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