Weekly Market Update

Treasuries Trade Weaker as Supply and More Inflation News Awaits Treasuries are trading weaker today as $22 billion waits to be auctioned this afternoon. After yesterday’s so-so 10yr auction discretion appears to be the better part of valor today. Also, tomorrow and Friday offer more inflation news with PPI tomorrow and Import/Export prices on Friday….

Inflation Week Arrives It’s a tentative start as Inflation Week arrives. Treasuries are trading slightly lower, and equities are continuing the selling from last Friday. With CPI, PPI, and Import/Export prices, investors will have plenty of inflation news to chew on before the FOMC meeting next week (more on that below). Presently, the 10yr Treasury…

February Jobs Report – Something for Everyone  Nonfarm payroll gains for February were 275 thousand vs. 200 thousand expected and  229 thousand in January (revised down from an initial 353 thousand). In fact, the prior two-months were revised lower by 167 thousand jobs which continues a year-long trend of downward revisions.  Private sector jobs increased…

Treasuries Rally Ahead of Powell’s Congressional Testimony With Fed Chair Powell set to testify on Capitol Hill over the next two days, investors are hoping to gain additional color around the Fed’s reaction function towards rate cuts. Alas, Powell’s opening remarks offered little change from the patient pause approach, but his comment that rate cuts…

Whether January Strength Was A Fluke Will Start To Be Answered This Week With some pivotal economic releases pending this week Treasury yields are drifting higher this morning. The February jobs report looms on Friday while the ISM Services Index is due tomorrow (more on those below). Whether January strength was due to tricky seasonal…

More Fed Speak and an Early February Inflation Number Treasuries are hovering around unchanged levels this morning as a final slate of five Fed speakers go at it today, and we get our first look at February inflation pressure, or lack thereof, in the ISM Manufacturing Survey later this morning, (more on that below).  Presently,…

Market Awaits PCE Inflation Numbers Tomorrow Treasury yields are mostly unchanged as investors await the latest inflation readings tomorrow and a trio of Fed speakers this afternoon, (more on that below).  Presently, the 10yr Treasury is yielding 4.30%, unchanged on the day, while the 2yr Treasury is yielding 4.68%, up 1/32nd in price.   In…

More Inflation Data Due This Week Treasury yields are drifting a bit higher this morning as investors await Treasury supply today and tomorrow (more on that below).  The data calendar also picks up this week, and Fed speak will be plentiful, although comments are likely to sound familiar to last week’s patient pause messaging.    Presently,…

The Fed Affirms Their Patient Pause Approach Treasuries are marking time today with little data on offer and a pair of Treasury auctions awaiting on Monday. Those auctions, 2yr and 5yr, should keep any rally attempts in check, especially as this week’s Fed speak offered little hope of rate cuts anytime soon (more on that…

Market Awaits FOMC Minutes and Nvidia’s Earnings With precious little new fundamental information on offer today Treasuries are finding an early bid, but it certainly lacks conviction. One highlight today will be the FOMC minutes dur at 2pm ET (more on that below). The other big event will be Nvidia’s quarterly earnings after the close….

Inflation Angst Returns With Hot January PPI After a couple days of recouping losses off the hot CPI report we’re back wringing hands over the specter of higher inflation after today’s PPI report which, just like CPI, surprised to the upside. The implication of a hot PPI is that it will lead to the same…

Regional Bank Angst Returns Treasury prices are higher this morning as fears once again erupt over the state of banks and their exposure to office building loans. New York Community Bank is the latest to draw fire, but with the well-documented travails of office building vacancies in the WFH era, short-sellers suspect there are many…