Weekly Market Update

February nonfarm payrolls rose 151 thousand, missing the 160 thousand expectation and 125 thousand in January (revised down from an initial 143 thousand). December was revised up by 16 thousand jobs bringing the two-month revisions to down 2 thousand. Private sector job growth was modest at 140 thousand which was off the 145 thousand expected…

Treasury yields are near unchanged this morning, as are equities before the open. The President’s Congressional address last night didn’t reveal anything new or different on the fiscal policy front, so the market is turning its focus to the latest economic releases on employment (ADP) and the service sector (ISM Services) today. Currently, the 10yr…

Treasury yields are moving a bit higher on an early risk-on mood as the week opens, but plenty of potential potholes remain. First, 25% tariffs are scheduled to go into effect tomorrow on Mexico and Canada. The week is also full of first-tier data, including employment numbers and the latest ISM surveys. Add in the…

Treasury yields are moving lower on a Personal Income and Spending Report for January that noted softer spending and better-behaved inflation vs. the CPI report. That and uncertainty surrounding tariffs and economic growth are making for fertile trading for Treasuries as we await the weekend and whatever headlines may await us there.  Currently, the 10yr…

Treasury yields are slightly higher this morning as equities try to mount a rebound with Nvidia earnings looming after the bell with hopes they “save” the Mag 7 big tech group, after what has been a tough few weeks of selling. Currently, the 10yr Treasury is yielding 4.30%, unchanged on the day, while the 2yr…

Treasury yields are slightly higher this morning as equities try to mount a rebound after the heavy selling on Friday sparked by some dour outlooks on the economy (more on that below). The week’s headline report will be Friday’s Personal Income and Spending for January, along with the PCE inflation series, so until then expect…

Treasury yields are sharply unchanged in quiet Friday morning trading. With not much on the data docket today – S&P Global Preliminary February PMIs are it – any volatility will have to come from White House announcements, of which they are quite prolific. Currently, the 10yr Treasury is yielding 4.50%, unchanged on the day, while…

Treasury yields are slightly higher this morning as more tariff talk has markets assessing the inflationary impact once again. With a light week of data, we’re subject to the turbulence created by these policy announcements, but the action is somewhat muted as a “been there done that” element enters into the trading calculus. Currently, the…

Treasury yields are lower after disappointing retail sales for January and another inflation input that should lower core PCE estimates. Retail sales posted the largest monthly decrease in a year, and it was broad-based in nature. The weather will be used as a partial excuse, but even the internet sales category, assumed to be safe…

Treasury yields have gapped higher on the hotter-than-expected CPI report, and it has also dashed hopes for a mid-year rate cut.  While firms typically build in annual price increases in January, with all the tariff talk some may have added a bit more this year which may have overwhelmed the seasonal adjustment. In any event,…

Treasury yields are mostly unchanged this morning as investors nervously await a trio of inflation reports this week. Also, investors will be keen to see how the consumer fared in January with retail sales on Friday.  In addition, the ever-present risk of tariff announcements from the White House will keep the bulls at bay for…

January nonfarm payrolls rose 143 thousand, missing the 175 thousand expectation and 307 thousand in December (revised up from an initial 256 thousand). November was revised up by 49 thousand jobs bringing the two-month revision to 100 thousand. Private sector job growth was modest at 111 thousand which was off the 273 thousand in December…