Correspondent Blog

More Fed Speak and an Early February Inflation Number Treasuries are hovering around unchanged levels this morning as a final slate of five Fed speakers go at it today, and we get our first look at February inflation pressure, or lack thereof, in the ISM Manufacturing Survey later this morning, (more on that below).  Presently,…

Market Awaits PCE Inflation Numbers Tomorrow Treasury yields are mostly unchanged as investors await the latest inflation readings tomorrow and a trio of Fed speakers this afternoon, (more on that below).  Presently, the 10yr Treasury is yielding 4.30%, unchanged on the day, while the 2yr Treasury is yielding 4.68%, up 1/32nd in price.   In…

More Inflation Data Due This Week Treasury yields are drifting a bit higher this morning as investors await Treasury supply today and tomorrow (more on that below).  The data calendar also picks up this week, and Fed speak will be plentiful, although comments are likely to sound familiar to last week’s patient pause messaging.    Presently,…

The Fed Affirms Their Patient Pause Approach Treasuries are marking time today with little data on offer and a pair of Treasury auctions awaiting on Monday. Those auctions, 2yr and 5yr, should keep any rally attempts in check, especially as this week’s Fed speak offered little hope of rate cuts anytime soon (more on that…

Market Awaits FOMC Minutes and Nvidia’s Earnings With precious little new fundamental information on offer today Treasuries are finding an early bid, but it certainly lacks conviction. One highlight today will be the FOMC minutes dur at 2pm ET (more on that below). The other big event will be Nvidia’s quarterly earnings after the close….

Inflation Angst Returns With Hot January PPI After a couple days of recouping losses off the hot CPI report we’re back wringing hands over the specter of higher inflation after today’s PPI report which, just like CPI, surprised to the upside. The implication of a hot PPI is that it will lead to the same…

Regional Bank Angst Returns Treasury prices are higher this morning as fears once again erupt over the state of banks and their exposure to office building loans. New York Community Bank is the latest to draw fire, but with the well-documented travails of office building vacancies in the WFH era, short-sellers suspect there are many…

The Fed Push Back Continues Treasury prices are lower this morning as Jay Powell used a 60 Minutes Interview last night as another opportunity to push back on thoughts of a March rate cut. While he didn’t add much to what was communicated after the FOMC meeting, the market is trading it more like fresh…

January Jobs Report Much Stronger Than Expected Nonfarm payroll gains came in much better than expected with 353 thousand new jobs vs. 185 thousand expected and 333 thousand in December (revised higher from an initial 216 thousand).  Private sector jobs increased  by 317 thousand vs. 165 thousand expected and 278 thousand in December (revised higher…

Fed Still Noncommittal When Cuts Will Begin As widely expected, the Fed kept the funds rate range unchanged at 5.25% – 5.50% and continued to push back against rate cuts beginning soon. The biggest shift in the statement was to change “In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate” to “risks…

March Rate Cut Odds Rising Again Treasury prices are higher this morning as a series of bond-friendly reports have boosted odds for a March rate cut. From ADP’s downside miss on private sector job growth, to the Employment Cost Index pointing to slowing wage gains, to Treasury’s mostly as-expected auction announcement it has provided a…

A Busy Week Awaits Investors Treasury prices are higher on a flight-to-safety trade following the weekend drone attack on US troops in Jordan. That geo-political risk is likely to spread giving Treasuries additional support heading into a week full of first-tier events, headlined by the FOMC meeting concluding on Wednesday. Presently, the 10yr Treasury is…