Weekly Market Update

Treasury yields are slightly higher this morning as more tariff talk has markets assessing the inflationary impact once again. With a light week of data, we’re subject to the turbulence created by these policy announcements, but the action is somewhat muted as a “been there done that” element enters into the trading calculus. Currently, the…

Treasury yields are lower after disappointing retail sales for January and another inflation input that should lower core PCE estimates. Retail sales posted the largest monthly decrease in a year, and it was broad-based in nature. The weather will be used as a partial excuse, but even the internet sales category, assumed to be safe…

Treasury yields have gapped higher on the hotter-than-expected CPI report, and it has also dashed hopes for a mid-year rate cut.  While firms typically build in annual price increases in January, with all the tariff talk some may have added a bit more this year which may have overwhelmed the seasonal adjustment. In any event,…

Treasury yields are mostly unchanged this morning as investors nervously await a trio of inflation reports this week. Also, investors will be keen to see how the consumer fared in January with retail sales on Friday.  In addition, the ever-present risk of tariff announcements from the White House will keep the bulls at bay for…

January nonfarm payrolls rose 143 thousand, missing the 175 thousand expectation and 307 thousand in December (revised up from an initial 256 thousand). November was revised up by 49 thousand jobs bringing the two-month revision to 100 thousand. Private sector job growth was modest at 111 thousand which was off the 273 thousand in December…

Treasury yields are lower this morning as talk of a US takeover of the Gaza Strip has a flight-to-safety trade happening, but equities are rebounding off earlier lows as markets and investors become more circumspect on White House announcements that may be more rhetorical rather than statements of new fact or policy. In any event,…

Expect a week of volatile trading as tariff policies are implemented, and likely revised, and if that isn’t enough to stir the anxiety pot, this is jobs week which adds first-tier data to the volatile brew. The initial reaction to the weekend tariff news is to dent equities and provoke a minimal flight-to-safety trade on…

Treasury yields are waffling around unchanged levels this morning as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge matched expectations, and investors ponder possible tariffs on Canada and Mexico beginning tomorrow. While much is still unknown about the tariff schedule, and whether it will even be enacted, traders are deciding the better part of valor is to hold…

After a pause yesterday, Treasury yields are edging lower this morning, but with little conviction, as the market awaits the Fed’s rate decision later this afternoon, and equities continue to regroup after the DeepSeek-inspired Monday selloff.  Currently, the 10yr Treasury is yielding 4.52%, down 3bps on the day, while the 2yr is yielding 4.19% down 1bp…

Treasury yields are down big this morning as a Chinese startup in the AI business has roiled the industry and raised questions about America’s lead in this cutting- edge technology. That has tech stocks taking major hits with Treasuries the beneficiary of the equity selling (more on that below).  Currently, the 10yr Treasury is yielding…

Treasury yields are virtually unchanged, despite a flurry of Trump quotes on tariffs and interest rates, and that has been a feature this week with the new administration. As some of the more draconian policies promised on the campaign trail regarding tariffs and deportations have yet to become reality, Treasuries are taking a bit of…

Treasury yields are a tad lower this morning as the market continues to buy the fact on tariffs perhaps not being as onerous as threatened after the election. With Trump talking about 10% tariffs on China, and not 60%, along with the possibility that some may be rolled out in increments, the market is taking…