Election Scenarios Starting To Be Priced In

September Retail Sales & CPI Head This Week’s Releases We are one week closer to the election and it seems the markets are getting comfortable pricing in a Biden win and that has helped give a lift in Treasury yields over the past week. The thinking is if the win is decisive enough to be…

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Fate of Stimulus Changes by the Tweet

Allow us, during a slow week of economic releases, to do a little self-promotion. We will be hosting a Capital Markets Forum on October 15 in a livestream format. If you’re curious where the economy and interest rates might be headed, and what to do about it, spend a couple hours in the comfort of…

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Election and COVID Scenarios Vie for Market Attention

Elections and COVID One presidential debate down and with the president beset with a case of COVID (but set to be released today) that could be it for debates this cycle. Thus, we travel into November with a contested election still a serious consideration. How that impacts yields is anyone’s guess but we think the…

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September Jobs Report is Mixed Bag

Economic NewsInitial Jobless ClaimsThe Dollar and TIPs Breakeven RatesMarket Rates   Economic News The September Employment Report is out  and it missed the headline expectation mainly due to government job cuts. For the month,  661 thousand jobs were created versus the 875 thousand median estimate. This miss came largely from government losing 216 thousand jobs….

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Consumer Confidence and Housing Bounce Higher

The end of the quarter is upon us so those month-end and quarter-end rebalancing trades may drive some volatility today but it’s been a sharply rangebound fixed income market for almost all of September. October will have the added heat of the election campaign in its home stretch and while that’s likely to up the…

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Election Scenarios Start to Matter for the Market

Election Calculus Enters The Equation This is a week with a ton of first-tier data but will it matter? With the first of three presidential debates set to air on Tuesday evening, election scenarios will move front and center as market drivers ending of course on November 3rd. Or perhaps, not ending on that date…

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While Housing Roars, Other Parts Of The Economy Not So Much

Not that economic results have been driving markets much since the pandemic hit it’s even less likely as we get closer to the elections and investors start to enter that event into the trading calculus. It will still be the direction of the pandemic that will be calling most of the shots but as the…

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Will Fiscal Stimulus 2.0 Arrive in Time?

Even though we had an FOMC meeting last week we are being inundated with Fed speak again with almost every FOMC member opining on the economy and US policy this week. The headliner, however, was Chair Powell paired with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin testifying before the House Financial Services Panel yesterday. They will repeat the performance…

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More Fed Speak to Fill the Week

Fed Speak and Home Sales Even though we just had an FOMC meeting last week we will be inundated with Fed speak again with almost every FOMC member opining on the economy and US policy. The headliner, however, will be Chair Powell paired with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin testifying before the House Financial Services Panel tomorrow…

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No Big Changes Expected From FOMC Meeting Today

It’s FOMC meeting day but before we learn what the Fed has in store for us (which we’ll talk more about below), we did get the August retail sales numbers and they reflect a note of caution that if fiscal stimulus continues to fade into the fall, does that risk a W-shaped bounce rather than…

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FOMC Meeting Highlights the Week

FOMC Meeting & August Retail Sales The FOMC rate decision on Wednesday will be the highlight of the week, but with most economic reports posting decent numbers of late, it’s not likely the Fed will announce any new initiatives on Wednesday like quantifiable targets to guide reward guidance or longer duration quantitative easing purchases. Still,…

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Stocks Look to Open Higher. Will it Stick?

In addition to the jobs report last week the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey provides some additional labor market details. The issue is it’s always a month behind its more famous labor report sibling. In any event, the July report due later this morning is expected to show job openings totaling 6.00 million versus…

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