Weekly Market Update

Powell on Tap Today Treasury yields are higher this morning as the second look at third quarter GDP was better than expected (2.9% vs. 2.6% first estimate) and the price index rose to 4.6% vs. 4.5% in the first estimate. While it’s backward-looking data it does show the degree of strength the economy was carrying…

China Unrest Has Market in a Risk-Off Mood Treasury yields are mixed to unchanged while stock futures are lower this morning as Covid-related restrictions in China prompted protests, and renewed concerns that increased lockdowns will slow global growth and add fresh supply chain problems. The 10yr did reach a yield of 3.62% in overseas trading…

Fears of Renewed Chinese Lockdowns Have Treasury Prices Higher Treasury yields and stock futures are lower this morning as a few Covid-related deaths in China renewed concerns that the Chinese government may resort to another round of lockdowns that would dim global growth and create more supply chain woes. The 10yr is yielding 3.77% up…

Market Remains Resistant to Higher Funds Rate Projections Treasury yields and stock futures are a bit higher this morning as the market continues to digest the latest Fed speak. The 10yr is yielding 3.79% up from the 3.67% low yield on Wednesday The 2yr is currently yielding 4.48%, up from the 4.29% low from last…

Retail Sales Beat Can’t Dim Treasury Rally Treasury yields are trading mostly around unchanged this morning and stock futures indicated slightly lower as the market digests some economic releases. Despite the unchanged nature of today’s early trading the 10yr Treasury is retaining the rally from last Thursday’s post-CPI reaction. The 10yr is yielding 3.76%, near…

Fed Speak Tries to Douse Market Enthusiasm Treasury yields are slightly higher this morning and stock futures indicated lower as some weekend Fed speak tried to dim expectations that the Fed is close to the end of its rate-hiking campaign. Despite the Fed jawboning, the 10yr Treasury is still retaining much of the rally from…

October CPI Likely to Bolster Fed Hiking Intentions Treasury yields are slightly higher this morning and stock futures indicated higher as the market awaits tomorrow’s mid-term elections, Fed Speak, and the October CPI reading on Thursday. The 10yr Treasury is yielding 4.16% while the 2yr is currently yielding 4.71%. The 2yr yield did trade as…

Fed Expected to Deliver Another 75bps Rate Hike Today Treasury yields are mostly unchanged this morning as the market awaits the afternoon rate decision by the FOMC. The 10yr Treasury is yielding 4.04% while the 2yr is currently yielding 4.54%. Let’s check back on that after this afternoon’s events.   The big event of the…

Market Awaits FOMC Rate Decision and Powell’s Comments Treasury yields are modestly higher this morning, but the moves lack conviction given the upcoming FOMC meeting with the expected 75bps rate hike. The 10yr Treasury is off 7/32nds in price to yield 4.04% as the 4% level remains a target.   The big talk around the…

Third Quarter ECI Will Keep Fed Firmly in Hiking Mode Treasury prices are under a bit of pressure this morning as higher inflation prints in Europe have bonds on the back foot as the weekend approaches. The 10yr Treasury is off 14/32nds to yield 3.98% as the 4% level remains a magnet, both from above…

Signs of Economic Slowing are Beginning to Show Treasury prices continue to move higher this morning as tech giants Google and Microsoft posted disappointing earnings after yesterday’s close, feeding the narrative that the Fed’s rate hikes are beginning to have an impact on businesses. So, we seemed to have moved into the “bad news is…

Investors Ponder Possible Slowing in Rate Hikes 10yr Treasury yields peaked at 4.34% last Friday and then retraced during the balance of the trading day and that continued overnight with the yield dropping as low as 4.12%. Currently, the yield is 4.22%. The market continues to run a bit with the theme that the Fed…