Weekly Market Update

Treasury yields are moving lower this morning as some tariff angst is removed but by no means for good. Despite the move lower today, yields have certainly engaged in a bearish trend of late. We were off last week (what a week to be away) and when we last reported on April 4th,  the 2yr…

March nonfarm payrolls rose 228 thousand, easily beating the 140 thousand expectation and 117 thousand in February (revised down from an initial 151 thousand). January was revised down by 16 thousand jobs bringing the two-month revisions to down 48 thousand. Private sector job growth was solid at 209 thousand which was well clear of the…

Treasury yields are near unchanged this morning, with a slight downward bias, as investors await the latest tariff details. Yes, it’s “Liberation Day” with the President scheduled to give a Rose Garden address at 4pm ET, hopefully providing more details around the reciprocal tariff plans. In the meantime, the data flow this week continues with…

Treasury yields are moving lower this morning as tariff uncertainty continues to weigh on investors and the risk-off tone is contributing to strong Treasury bids. With the so-called “Liberation Day” approaching on Wednesday, and details still being fleshed out, the better part of valor seems to be sitting it out in Treasuries, or cash. Despite…

Treasury yields are lifting higher on the news that the April 2nd reciprocal tariffs may be more surgical in nature and not the broad-based salvo that some had feared. That has the market in a tentative risk-on tone as a consequence. We’ll see how that survives the day. Currently, the 10yr Treasury is yielding 4.30%,…

With a bare data calendar, the market will turn to a pair of Fed speakers with Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee and NY Fed President John Williams offering their views today. Coming so soon after the FOMC meeting we doubt we’ll hear a strikingly different message from Powell’s on Wednesday, but they are two of…

Meeting Highlights  As widely anticipated the Fed held the target rate range to 4.25% – 4.50%.  The updated rate forecast, or dot plot, sees 50bps in rate cuts in 2025, same as the December forecast, but only two members see more than two cuts while in December five members saw three or more cuts. Two…

With no reports on offer this morning, the market will try to remain awake until the 2pm ET FOMC announcement and subsequent press conference. The risk-off tone in equities resumed once more yesterday, and that allowed Treasuries to rally a bit, but the moves were limited with the Fed meeting looming. Treasury yields are near…

Treasury yields are up a bit this morning with a Retail Sales report that noted a rebound in the Control Group. We characterize the report as more mixed so we suspect this upward bounce off of it may be short lived. In any event, it is the last major report before the mid-week Fed rate…

February nonfarm payrolls rose 151 thousand, missing the 160 thousand expectation and 125 thousand in January (revised down from an initial 143 thousand). December was revised up by 16 thousand jobs bringing the two-month revisions to down 2 thousand. Private sector job growth was modest at 140 thousand which was off the 145 thousand expected…

Treasury yields are near unchanged this morning, as are equities before the open. The President’s Congressional address last night didn’t reveal anything new or different on the fiscal policy front, so the market is turning its focus to the latest economic releases on employment (ADP) and the service sector (ISM Services) today. Currently, the 10yr…

Treasury yields are moving a bit higher on an early risk-on mood as the week opens, but plenty of potential potholes remain. First, 25% tariffs are scheduled to go into effect tomorrow on Mexico and Canada. The week is also full of first-tier data, including employment numbers and the latest ISM surveys. Add in the…