Weekly Market Update

Treasury yields are lifting higher on the news that the April 2nd reciprocal tariffs may be more surgical in nature and not the broad-based salvo that some had feared. That has the market in a tentative risk-on tone as a consequence. We’ll see how that survives the day. Currently, the 10yr Treasury is yielding 4.30%,…

With a bare data calendar, the market will turn to a pair of Fed speakers with Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee and NY Fed President John Williams offering their views today. Coming so soon after the FOMC meeting we doubt we’ll hear a strikingly different message from Powell’s on Wednesday, but they are two of…

Meeting Highlights  As widely anticipated the Fed held the target rate range to 4.25% – 4.50%.  The updated rate forecast, or dot plot, sees 50bps in rate cuts in 2025, same as the December forecast, but only two members see more than two cuts while in December five members saw three or more cuts. Two…

With no reports on offer this morning, the market will try to remain awake until the 2pm ET FOMC announcement and subsequent press conference. The risk-off tone in equities resumed once more yesterday, and that allowed Treasuries to rally a bit, but the moves were limited with the Fed meeting looming. Treasury yields are near…

Treasury yields are up a bit this morning with a Retail Sales report that noted a rebound in the Control Group. We characterize the report as more mixed so we suspect this upward bounce off of it may be short lived. In any event, it is the last major report before the mid-week Fed rate…

February nonfarm payrolls rose 151 thousand, missing the 160 thousand expectation and 125 thousand in January (revised down from an initial 143 thousand). December was revised up by 16 thousand jobs bringing the two-month revisions to down 2 thousand. Private sector job growth was modest at 140 thousand which was off the 145 thousand expected…

Treasury yields are near unchanged this morning, as are equities before the open. The President’s Congressional address last night didn’t reveal anything new or different on the fiscal policy front, so the market is turning its focus to the latest economic releases on employment (ADP) and the service sector (ISM Services) today. Currently, the 10yr…

Treasury yields are moving a bit higher on an early risk-on mood as the week opens, but plenty of potential potholes remain. First, 25% tariffs are scheduled to go into effect tomorrow on Mexico and Canada. The week is also full of first-tier data, including employment numbers and the latest ISM surveys. Add in the…

Treasury yields are moving lower on a Personal Income and Spending Report for January that noted softer spending and better-behaved inflation vs. the CPI report. That and uncertainty surrounding tariffs and economic growth are making for fertile trading for Treasuries as we await the weekend and whatever headlines may await us there.  Currently, the 10yr…

Treasury yields are slightly higher this morning as equities try to mount a rebound with Nvidia earnings looming after the bell with hopes they “save” the Mag 7 big tech group, after what has been a tough few weeks of selling. Currently, the 10yr Treasury is yielding 4.30%, unchanged on the day, while the 2yr…

Treasury yields are slightly higher this morning as equities try to mount a rebound after the heavy selling on Friday sparked by some dour outlooks on the economy (more on that below). The week’s headline report will be Friday’s Personal Income and Spending for January, along with the PCE inflation series, so until then expect…

Treasury yields are sharply unchanged in quiet Friday morning trading. With not much on the data docket today – S&P Global Preliminary February PMIs are it – any volatility will have to come from White House announcements, of which they are quite prolific. Currently, the 10yr Treasury is yielding 4.50%, unchanged on the day, while…