Weekly Market Update

Meeting Highlights  As widely anticipated, the Fed cut the funds rate 25bps to lower the target rate range to 3.50% – 3.75%.  The biggest uncertainty heading into the meeting was the updated rate forecast, or dot plot. In September, they had the funds rate hitting 3.25% -3.50% at year-end 2026. Given the subsequent rate cuts…

It’s Fed Day and the expected 25bps rate cut this afternoon, but what else are we likely to get? We discuss more of that below with a new dot plot and economic forecasts (GDP, Inflation, Unemployment), but keep in mind the Fed is still operating in foggy conditions given the data delays, and some data…

It’s FOMC Week, so we await an expected 25bps rate cut on Wednesday, but that’s not all! Being a quarter-end meeting, the Fed will also update the Dot Plot of future rate expectations, and refreshed economic projections (GDP, Inflation, Unemployment), which will provide plenty of trading fodder for Wednesday afternoon if not the balance of…

The last of the September inflation and spending reports will be issued at 10am ET with the release of the Personal Income and Spending Report.  The results aren’t likely to shift odds of a rate cut next week but could begin to adjust expectations for early 2026. However, with November payrolls and CPI looming in…

If you were thinking the economy was taking a step back while the government shutdown prevented updated data, the ADP Employment Change Report for November confirmed your thinking. ADP reported 32k in job losses in November (more on that below) and that continues to solidify the consensus for a rate cut next week. Odds that…

Global risk markets (read: stocks) have started December under pressure as a renewed selloff in crypto and hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan weighed on early sentiment. Domestically, the early returns are in on Black Friday sales and although up 4.1% from 2024 adjusted for inflation (i.e., tariffs) it wasn’t as stellar as the…

The Fed looks to be settling into the holiday shortened week early as no speakers are on the calendar, although some impromptu appearances are always possible. In addition, next week begins the Fed’s quiet period before the December 10th FOMC rate decision, so the market will be contending with limited data, and limited to no…

While Nvidia’s blowout earnings weren’t enough to keep risk markets higher, perhaps the words from a Fed official who is closely aligned with Chair Powell calling for a December rate cut will. NY Fed President John Williams (FOMC voter), speaking to a central bank conference in Chile this morning offered up this, “I still see…

The dam of delayed data is beginning to break. The initial releases, from August and second tier in importance, seem to pick up where we left them in the summer. That is, no great break from recent trends. That may change tomorrow when the BLS releases the September jobs report, however, expectations are for a…

As we note below, we will see a jobs report this week, but it will be from September, and it will be released on Thursday. When we get our hands on other delayed reports is still a guess, but we should get updates this week on a calendar of revised release dates. There’s also plenty…

With several Fed officials recently voicing more concern over inflation and less about the economy/jobs, odds for a rate cut in December have plummeted from a 96% probability a month ago to a toss-up at this point (see graph below). That shift contributed to the tech-heavy selling yesterday in stocks, which coincidentally has been the…

Restarting the government may happen very soon but receiving delayed reports could take some time. The table below offers possible report release dates given varying government reopening times. The House is expected to vote on the Senate bill today and presumably a passed bill to President Trump’s desk today or tomorrow. Given that legislative outlook…