Weekly Market Update

The dam of delayed data is beginning to break. The initial releases, from August and second tier in importance, seem to pick up where we left them in the summer. That is, no great break from recent trends. That may change tomorrow when the BLS releases the September jobs report, however, expectations are for a…

As we note below, we will see a jobs report this week, but it will be from September, and it will be released on Thursday. When we get our hands on other delayed reports is still a guess, but we should get updates this week on a calendar of revised release dates. There’s also plenty…

With several Fed officials recently voicing more concern over inflation and less about the economy/jobs, odds for a rate cut in December have plummeted from a 96% probability a month ago to a toss-up at this point (see graph below). That shift contributed to the tech-heavy selling yesterday in stocks, which coincidentally has been the…

Restarting the government may happen very soon but receiving delayed reports could take some time. The table below offers possible report release dates given varying government reopening times. The House is expected to vote on the Senate bill today and presumably a passed bill to President Trump’s desk today or tomorrow. Given that legislative outlook…

With seven Dems breaking ranks, and one Independent, the Senate voted 60-40 to advance a short-term funding bill that could potentially reopen the government as soon as this week, but a final Senate vote is still needed and if passed faces an uncertain outcome in the House, so plenty of steps still remain. Even if…

While we don’t have a BLS Nonfarm Payrolls Report today we will have the preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Survey for November. Excited? Well, me neither. Also, while the Supreme Court hearing didn’t go particularly well for the Trump administration, it will most likely be a few weeks before a decision is handed down, and…

While we won’t have a BLS Nonfarm Payrolls Report on Friday, for the second straight month, the privately issued ADP Employment Report provided plenty of labor-related news this morning. ADP, after surprising with job losses in September, beat expectations in October (read more below). The ISM Services Index for October will be the next report…

As the shutdown enters its 34th day, and soon to be a new record this week, the biggest event may be in the court room where on Wednesday the Supreme Court will hear arguments on whether Trump’s emergency tariff authority is constitutional. While hearings on the issue will be Wednesday, a decision is most likely…

Treasuries are treading water this morning as another earnings boost in the AI space has equities on the front foot as October ends. Amazon beat earnings yesterday, backed by its cloud business, with that familiar segment leading the equity market higher this morning. Next week should be Jobs Week, but other than ADP and private…

News that China and the US have agreed to a series of trade-related deals, in anticipation of a Thursday meeting between Trump and Xi, has risk markets heading higher as Treasuries back up a bit on the positive news. The devil always lurks in the details of these grandiose announcements, but for now the market…

Treasuries are waffling around unchanged levels this morning with equities heading higher on the back of a delayed but better-than-expected September CPI report. The cooler inflation numbers seal a rate cut next week and pave the way for another in December. The report was about all the Fed could ask for, but the hawks will…

The shutdown enters its 21st day marking the second longest on record. The record-holding 2018-2019 shutdown appears in danger of falling as Polymarkets is betting it goes well into November and Congressional action on the matter seems lifeless (see graph below). By the way, November 5th would mark a new record. In the meantime, we…