July Jobs Report Reveals Acceleration in Labor Market Softening
July Jobs Report Reveals Acceleration in Labor Market Softening Nonfarm payroll gains for July were 114 thousand vs. 175 thousand expected and 179 thousand in June (revised down from an initial 206 thousand). May was revised lower by 2 thousand jobs, bringing the two-month revisions to -29 thousand and that continues a year-long trend of…
Fed Continues to Pause but Hints at a September Cut
Meeting Highlights As expected, the Fed kept the funds rate range unchanged at 5.25% – 5.50%, and while the tone of the statement was less hawkish and didn’t overtly hint at a September rate cut, Powell’s post-meeting press conference did. They did, however, make some substantive changes to the statement that indicates the focus going…
Fed Prepared to Hold in the Face of Softening Data
Fed Prepared to Hold in the Face of Softening Data If we told you that overnight the Bank of Japan raised rates, European inflation readings surprised to the upside, and renewed hostilities in the Middle East boosted oil prices you would probably bet Treasury yields would be up, but you would be wrong. While global…
Prepare for a Boatload of First-Tier Data and Events this Week
Prepare for a Boatload of First-Tier Data and Events this Week Treasury yields are lower again this morning, but with plenty of first-tier data on tap this week, not to mention several central bank meetings, including the FOMC on Wednesday, there will be plenty of catalysts to spur trading reactions, so strap in for a…
June PCE Comes as Expected Keeping Hopes for a September Rate Cut Alive and Well
June PCE Comes as Expected Keeping Hopes for a September Rate Cut Alive and Well Treasury yields are lower this morning on the back of another positive read on inflation, this time it was the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation series. While coming in mostly as expected, it continues the theme of cooler inflation readings since…
Is Peer Pressure Building at the Fed?
Is Peer Pressure Building at the Fed? Treasury yields are lower this morning as disappointing PMI numbers from Europe added to the rate-cutting case on the Continent and it’s putting a little peer pressure on the Fed to join the party. In that regard, former NY Fed President Bill Dudley is adding to that sentiment…
GDP and PCE Vie for Attention in a Week Sure to be Full of Political News
GDP and PCE Vie for Attention in a Week Sure to be Full of Political News Treasury yields are a bit lower this morning as investors process the latest political developments, and they are treating it rather calmly with little volatility. We discuss the political developments below, but for now the market is treating it…
Increasing Jobless Claims May Signal Another Softish Jobs Report
Increasing Jobless Claims May Signal Another Softish Jobs Report Treasury yields are a bit higher this morning as investors process the latest Fed speak, continue to handicap election scenarios, and look ahead to the weekend. With no new economic reports due today it will be one of watching Fed speak and election headlines for direction,…
Fed Speak Continues to Preach Patience
Fed Speak Continues to Preach Patience Treasury yields are a bit higher this morning as investors weigh the latest Fed speak that continues to preach patience, and the stronger-than-expected retails sales numbers do give the Fed some backing for their stance in waiting on more positive inflation data for a possible September rate cut. Currently, the…
Weekend’s Events have Market in Risk-On Tone
Weekend’s Events have Market in Risk-On Tone Treasury yields are higher this morning as investors process the weekend’s violent events in a risk-on tone with the fallout pointing to increased odds of a Trump election, not to mention increasing odds for down ballot races as well. (more on that below). Currently, the 10yr note is yielding…
June Jobs Report Reflects Some Softening in the Labor Market
June Jobs Report Reflects Some Softening in the Labor Market Nonfarm payroll gains for June were 206 thousand vs. 190 thousand expected and 218 thousand in May (revised down from an initial 272 thousand). April was revised lower by 57 thousand jobs, bringing the two-month revisions to -111 thousand and that continues a year-long trend…
Bond Portfolio Trends: Second Quarter 2024
Examining Bond Portfolio Trends: Second Quarter 2024 Background Beginning in May 2012, we started tracking portfolio trends of our bond accounting customers here at SouthState|DuncanWilliams. At present, we account for over 130 client portfolios with a combined book value of $13.8 billion (not including SouthState Bank’s portfolio), or $106 million average per portfolio. Twelve months…