Weekly Market Update

Treasury yields are a touch higher this morning, but off earlier levels as election anxiety increases, and as investors brace for a busy week of data. Currently, the 10yr Treasury is yielding 4.24%, up 1bp on the day, but it did reach 4.29% in overnight trading. Meanwhile, the 2yr is yielding 4.10%, also up 1bp…

Treasury yields are a touch lower this morning as a mixed read on durable goods orders for September clears the deck for next week’s higher profile reports. Durable goods numbers continue to be subject to the travails of Boeing as the strike is keeping buyers cautious.  Orders ex transportation were better than expected, but then…

Treasury prices are under modest pressure this morning as a light data calendar has traders focused on election odds and the increased budget deficit for FY2024, and the lack of concern from either party to seriously address the issue after the election. So, while investors wait for first-tier data next week, an in-range drift higher…

Treasury yields are slightly lower this morning as a mixed message on housing starts and permits have traders waiting for the next big tradeable event. Fed speak may provide a spark with three (Bostic, Kashkari, Waller) set to talk today. All have been rather vocal in their views on policy going forward, so some headlines…

Treasury yields are lower this morning as cooler inflation readings from the UK are prompting calls for a rate cut from the Bank of England. In addition, the ECB is expected to cut 25bps tomorrow, so the rate-cutting theme is top of mind, and the US is no exception. The question on this side of…

Treasury yields are again trading around unchanged this morning as the PPI report for September came in without too much surprise and that leaves traders looking for a quiet day before a long three-day weekend. Currently, the 10yr Treasury is yielding 4.10%, up 1bp on the day, while the 2yr is yielding 3.97%, down 3bp…

Treasury yields are mostly unchanged this morning as investors mark time before tomorrow’s CPI report, and 10yr supply later today. Also, as we mention below, the twin hurricanes of Helene and Milton are likely to make a mess of the October jobs report which could make it harder to tell if September’s strength was a…

The recalibration in the fixed income markets continues after Friday’s surprisingly strong jobs report. Futures markets have dialed back thoughts of 50bps rate cuts, and new supply this week will also keep rally attempts on a short leash. Given the magnitude of the yield back-ups, we suspect it will entice enough interest that the auctions…

 The September jobs report surprised to the upside across most measures and seems to argue for a 25bps rate cut in November, at most, but the October jobs report will have the final say on that as it drops just before the November FOMC meeting. September nonfarm payrolls rose 254 thousand vs. 150 thousand expected…

With geo-political saber-rattling taking to the skies over Israel last night, reports that no major damage from the missile barrage has left the flight-to-safety trade wanting and Treasuries are on the back foot this morning. But with Israel pledging a retaliatory response the story is far from over. A somewhat positive ADP employment report (more…

With the Fed having moved the full employment mandate into the bus driver’s seat as to policy, this week will provide a raft of new employment data to ponder in the 25 or 50bps rate-cutting question. The headline will be Friday’s BLS jobs report for September but before then the Job Opening and Labor Turnover…

Treasury yields are a bit lower as the Fed’s preferred inflation measure came in slightly cooler than expected, but the YoY rate ticked up from 2.6% to 2.7% as tough base effects (a .008% MoM rolled off from last year) make YoY gains in the second half of this year challenging. On net, the report…