Weekly Market Update

Treasury yields are waffling around unchanged this morning as a light calendar and a modest risk-on tone to equities open the morning. A 5yr Treasury auction awaits this afternoon and while the last three 5yr auctions have tailed, so far in September coupon auctions are five for five in stopping through the bid so one…

There is a bit of a risk-off tone to start the week and that has Treasury yields drifting slightly lower, but with little conviction. After a week dominated by the FOMC meeting this week doesn’t have anything that can rival that event, but plenty of Fed speakers will be heading out to various venues to…

Meeting Highlights  As widely anticipated, the Fed cut the funds rate 25bps to lower the target rate range to 4.00% – 4.25%.  The updated rate forecast, or dot plot, has another 50bps in rate cuts in 2025, up 25bps from the June forecast.  They did, however, keep the number of expected cuts in 2026 at…

Treasury yields are sharply unchanged this morning as investors mark time until the FOMC rate decision at 2pm ET.  While a 25bps rate cut is the overwhelming consensus, it’s the details in the updated Dot Plot, economic summary, statement, and press conference that will shape trading for the near-term. Currently, the 10yr is yielding 4.03%,…

Treasury yields are a tick lower this morning as a soft Empire Manufacturing number kicks off the week’s new information. The action is likely to be limited until we’re past the event risk known as the FOMC Rate Decision, due on Wednesday at 2pm ET. We review our expectations for the meeting below, but spoiler…

Treasury yields are ticking higher this morning with little to drive them as most of the known event risk for the week has passed, and eyes now turn to next Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision.  The CPI report yesterday, while not great, was good enough to green light a rate cut, but truth be told the…

Treasury yields are a tick lower this morning as the cooler PPI report for August paves the way for a possibly friendly CPI.  The lowered BLS benchmark revision to job totals from the four quarters ending March didn’t prompt a durable move lower in yields yesterday, perhaps that news was telegraphed, not to mention fairly…

Treasury yields are a tick lower this morning as the soft August jobs report continues to reverberate across the financial landscape. In addition, the BLS is expected to release benchmark revisions to 2024 jobs data on Tuesday with another 600k – 800k in downward revisions expected. Thus, the weak jobs picture could get a little…

August nonfarm payrolls rose only 22 thousand, short of the 75 thousand expected and trailing the 79 thousand gained in July (revised higher from an initial 73 thousand).  Speaking of revisions, June was revised down by 27 thousand jobs (from +14 thousand to -13 thousand lost during the month) bringing two-month revisions to a modest…

Treasury yields are mostly unchanged this morning with a deluge of corporate debt issuance aided and abetted by sovereign auctions that are weighing on the fixed income market. Longer-dated debt is also confronting the issue of a Fed about to cut in the face of inflation that looks to be sticky at best, if not…

Treasury yields are mostly unchanged to slightly higher after the latest inflation, income and spending numbers that all matched expectations (more on that below). The market will now return to the Lisa Cook saga for trading direction and then next Friday’s all-important August jobs report. Until then, enjoy the long Labor Day weekend! Currently, the…

The Treasury curve is steepening a bit as the debate over Fed Independence grows and term premiums begin to edge higher on longer-term debt, while shorter maturities eye a September rate cut. Meanwhile, a day devoid of data will allow DC machinations to dominate the trading tone, albeit with 5yr supply on the docket for…