Correspondent Blog

Treasury yields have been volatile this morning with overnight seeing higher yields, but a bid was found in early US trading and those gains are now back near unchanged as equities ready to open at 9:30am ET. The data calendar is chock full, with the jobs report on Friday headlining the December releases. Meanwhile, the…

Treasury yields are slightly lower in another low-volume overnight session. The only item on the docket today is the December ISM Manufacturing Index at 10am ET (more on that below). The typical rush of reports in the first week of a new month has been pushed into next week due to the New Year holiday…

Treasury yields are heading lower in this thinly traded market as profit-taking continues in the big Tech winners of 2024, and that has equity futures under pressure once again.  With a limited data calendar, and no Fed speak, it will be the price action itself across equities that drive Treasuries. That said, with light staffing…

Treasury yields are edging higher with new supply coming this week. With Christmas on Wednesday, staffing levels are skeletal at best so don’t read too much into any movements due to the expected light volumes. That said, the Treasury will be auctioning 2yr notes today, 5yr notes tomorrow, and 7yr notes on Thursday so that…

Treasury prices have improved after a cool read on inflation from the Fed’s preferred inflation measure PCE. The spending numbers and savings rate indicates the consumer is not going away and still has plenty of ammunition to continue spending which bodes well for fourth quarter GDP. There remains a skittish risk-off tone in equities, but…

Meeting Highlights  As widely anticipated the Fed cut the funds rate by 25bp moving the target rate range to 4.25% – 4.50%.  The updated rate forecast, or dot plot, now sees another 50bp in rate cuts in 2025 vs. 100bp in the September forecast. That would put the year-end 2025 rate at 3.875%. The lowered…

Treasury prices have moved from lower to higher this morning as investors await the FOMC rate decision at 2pm ET. The November Housing Starts and Permits report provided a mixed read to distract traders until the Fed decision with starts dropping -1.8% while permits rose 6.1%. The miss in starts was mostly due to a…

Treasury yields are trending lower this morning as some of the selling last week is reversed, but it will be tentative moves until after the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, followed by the PCE inflation series on Thursday. While the Fed is expected to cut, it’s what Powell may say about the future of cuts…

Treasury yields are moving slightly higher this morning as the inflation data this week, and the Import/Export prices this morning, are sketching out a challenging environment to get to the Fed’s 2% target anytime soon. Thus, some hesitation is the mood as investors also await the FOMC rate cut next week, and perhaps more importantly…

Treasury yields are moving slightly lower this morning as November CPI came in mostly as expected which firms up odds for a rate cut next week and belied some whispers that the report could be on the hot side. We suspect, however, that further improvements in the months ahead may be hard to come by…

Treasury yields are edging higher this morning as some of the post-jobs report rally is reversed, and inflation reports loom on the horizon. The quick fall of the Assad Regime in Syria adds to the geo-political risk in a region already full of it, but so far there hasn’t been a flight-to-safety rally in Treasuries….

November nonfarm payrolls rose 224 thousand, just above the 215 thousand expected and 36 thousand in October (revised up from an initial 12 thousand). September was also revised up by 32 thousand jobs to 225 thousand, which goes against the year-long trend of lower revisions. Given, all the noise from hurricanes and strikes, the three-month…