Correspondent Blog

Treasuries are waffling around unchanged levels this morning with equity futures pointing higher and risk sentiment improving.  With the government shutdown entering its 19th day and firmly eyeing the 34-day record, we’ll be once again left to regional Fed reports and the varied mix of privately issued offerings. We will get, however, something resembling the…

The third week of the shutdown begins, and with missed paychecks for federal workers having already started military checks are due today. Treasury Secretary Bessent made mention of altering payment priorities to allow for the military payroll to be made, but that remains a wish rather than a reality. It could be, as in the…

Bond Portfolio Trends: Third Quarter 2025 Background Beginning in May 2012, we started tracking  portfolio trends of our bond accounting customers here at SouthState|DuncanWilliams.  At present, we account for over 130 client portfolios with a combined book value of $12.4 billion (not including SouthState Bank’s portfolio), or $96 million on average per portfolio.  Twelve months…

It’s day eight of the government shutdown and with missed paychecks for federal workers (10/10) and military (10/15) approaching perhaps some signs of life towards a resolution will appear soon. As the information blackout continues, we’ll at least have the FOMC minutes from September’s meeting to digest this afternoon.  We’re most interested in any discussion…

The government shutdown enters its sixth day with little sign of progress between the parties, so the data blackout continues into this week. To be fair, even with a fully functioning government in DC the offerings would have been sparse. We have managed, however, to round up some alternative data on the matter and discuss…

With the government shutdown entering its third day, the data blackout continues with the absence of the BLS Nonfarm Payrolls Report for September. We have managed, however, to round up some alternative data on the matter and discuss the findings below. Suffice it to say, labor market momentum continues to slow, but it’s in no…

While we may not see a BLS Nonfarm Payrolls Report on Friday, the ADP Employment Report provided plenty of labor-related news to keep everyone busy in the meantime. ADP surprised with job losses for September, mostly due to benchmarking revisions stemming from the same report that generated the BLS revisions for August. We discuss the…

Angst over a possible shutdown is growing, and the initial reaction is bond bullish. Treasury yields are modestly lower this morning with a deluge of labor market reporting due this week, if the government can manage to stay open and issue said reports. That’s a big if that we discuss in more detail below. Currently,…

Treasury yields are finding it hard reading the latest Personal Income and Spending Report. While the inflation data came in as expected, the solid income and spending figures argue again, like the reports yesterday, that numerous rate cuts may not be needed. Odds of two more cuts this year are down to approximately 60% vs….

Treasury yields are waffling around unchanged this morning as a light calendar and a modest risk-on tone to equities open the morning. A 5yr Treasury auction awaits this afternoon and while the last three 5yr auctions have tailed, so far in September coupon auctions are five for five in stopping through the bid so one…

There is a bit of a risk-off tone to start the week and that has Treasury yields drifting slightly lower, but with little conviction. After a week dominated by the FOMC meeting this week doesn’t have anything that can rival that event, but plenty of Fed speakers will be heading out to various venues to…

Meeting Highlights  As widely anticipated, the Fed cut the funds rate 25bps to lower the target rate range to 4.00% – 4.25%.  The updated rate forecast, or dot plot, has another 50bps in rate cuts in 2025, up 25bps from the June forecast.  They did, however, keep the number of expected cuts in 2026 at…