It may be Jobs Week, but it’s Tariff Tuesday too
Expect a week of volatile trading as tariff policies are implemented, and likely revised, and if that isn’t enough to stir the anxiety pot, this is jobs week which adds first-tier data to the volatile brew. The initial reaction to the weekend tariff news is to dent equities and provoke a minimal flight-to-safety trade on…
December PCE Inflation Matches Expectations
Treasury yields are waffling around unchanged levels this morning as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge matched expectations, and investors ponder possible tariffs on Canada and Mexico beginning tomorrow. While much is still unknown about the tariff schedule, and whether it will even be enacted, traders are deciding the better part of valor is to hold…
It’s Fed Day but Don’t Expect many Fireworks
After a pause yesterday, Treasury yields are edging lower this morning, but with little conviction, as the market awaits the Fed’s rate decision later this afternoon, and equities continue to regroup after the DeepSeek-inspired Monday selloff. Currently, the 10yr Treasury is yielding 4.52%, down 3bps on the day, while the 2yr is yielding 4.19% down 1bp…
DeepSeek Causing Deep Tech Losses
Treasury yields are down big this morning as a Chinese startup in the AI business has roiled the industry and raised questions about America’s lead in this cutting- edge technology. That has tech stocks taking major hits with Treasuries the beneficiary of the equity selling (more on that below). Currently, the 10yr Treasury is yielding…
The Calm Before the Storm?
Treasury yields are virtually unchanged, despite a flurry of Trump quotes on tariffs and interest rates, and that has been a feature this week with the new administration. As some of the more draconian policies promised on the campaign trail regarding tariffs and deportations have yet to become reality, Treasuries are taking a bit of…
Market Rather Calmly Awaits More Details on Tariffs
Treasury yields are a tad lower this morning as the market continues to buy the fact on tariffs perhaps not being as onerous as threatened after the election. With Trump talking about 10% tariffs on China, and not 60%, along with the possibility that some may be rolled out in increments, the market is taking…
Latest Data Shows Economy/Consumer Still Doing Good
Treasury yields are lower and equities rallying as the week draws to a close and markets make final preparations for a second Trump Administration. Second-tier data greets investors today so the combination of cooler inflation numbers and solid retail sales from earlier this week are combining to close the week in an upbeat tone, at…
Cool Core CPI has Markets Leaning the Wrong Way
Treasury yields are lower and equities rallying on a near as-expected CPI report for December that obviously had the market leaning towards a more bearish surprise. The combination of friendly PPI and CPI numbers for December has restored hopes of a rate cut sometime around mid-year and that’s aiding in the rally in both stocks…
After Strong Employment Report, Inflation Week Greets Investors
Treasury yields are inching ever-so-slightly higher this morning as the post-jobs report skittishness continues, albeit with much less impetus than last Friday. Also, investors are no doubt nervous with a trio of inflation reports looming on the horizon, along with retail sales on Thursday. So, the week is full of catalysts for even higher yields…
December Jobs Report Will Lengthen Rate Cut Pause
December nonfarm payrolls rose 256 thousand, easily beating the 165 thousand expected and 212 thousand in November (revised down from an initial 227 thousand). October was revised up by 7 thousand jobs, which goes against the year-long trend of lower revisions. Private sector job growth was strong at 231 thousand which is well ahead of…
Bond Portfolio Trends: Fourth Quarter 2024
Bond Portfolio Trends: Fourth Quarter 2024 Background Beginning in May 2012, we started tracking portfolio trends of our bond accounting customers here at SouthState|DuncanWilliams. At present, we account for over 130 client portfolios with a combined book value of $13.8 billion (not including SouthState Bank’s portfolio), or $106 million average per portfolio. Twelve months earlier,…
Soothing Words from Waller
Treasury yields continue to creep higher, but soothing words from Fed Governor Waller on inflation have at least stabilized the short end and kept larger moves at bay on the long end. The Treasury will finish its trio of auctions this week with $22 billion in 30yr bonds this afternoon and that will likely keep…