Correspondent Blog

July nonfarm payrolls rose only 73 thousand, missing the 105 thousand expected but slightly ahead of the 14 thousand increase in June (significantly revised lower from an initial 147 thousand increase).  Speaking of revisions, May was revised down by 125 thousand jobs bringing two-month revisions to an astounding 258 thousand. Private sector job growth was…

Meeting Highlights  As expected, the Fed kept the funds rate range unchanged at 4.25% – 4.50%, with two Fed governors dissenting (Waller and Bowman). The double dissent from governors is the first since 1993. Truth be known, It’s not really surprising the pair dissented as they’ve been increasingly vocal about cutting now, and it does…

Treasury yields are trading a bit higher after this morning’s new data headlined by 2nd Quarter GDP coming in at 3.0% beating most estimates, but with some nagging questions. A reversal of the 1st quarter import surge led to the rebound. As we march through the thicket of first-tier data on offer this week, the…

The week of light data rolls on but at least we have trade deals to talk about. The announced deal between Japan and the US on tariffs has markets in a risk-on mood and that has Treasuries on the back foot, but after a five-day rally in 10yr notes a little breather can be expected….

Bond Portfolio Trends: Second Quarter 2025 Background Beginning in May 2012, we started tracking  portfolio trends of our bond accounting customers here at SouthState|DuncanWilliams.  At present, we account for over 130 client portfolios with a combined book value of $12.3 billion (not including SouthState Bank’s portfolio), or $95 million on average per portfolio.  Twelve months…

It’s a light data week and with the Fed going quiet prior to their FOMC meeting next week we’ll be subjected to the whims of the White House and the saga of Powell’s status as Fed Chair. For now, markets are quiet with a slight risk-on tone to start the week. Dow futures are indicated…

Fed Governor Waller was at it again in a Thursday evening address outlining his views for a rate cut at the upcoming July FOMC meeting. That has markets modestly bull-steepening in response, and while the “cut now” remarks are nothing new from Waller, he did add more meat to the bone for his thinking and…

Cooler PPI numbers this morning have slowed the upward push in Treasury yields. While headline PPI was unchanged, beating the 0.1% expectation, it was more mixed in the internals. The goods side did see price increases that were offset at the headline level by weaker service prices, which may reflect softening demand (for example, travel…

Treasuries are taking weekend developments in stride this morning which has been the tendency of late, but the question always lurks, for how much longer? Japanese long bond yields rose again, talk of 30% tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and possibly the EU, have been threatened and criticism against Powell over Fed HQ renovations only seems…

June nonfarm payrolls rose 147 thousand, easily beating the 110 thousand expected and slightly ahead of the 144 thousand in May (revised up from an initial 139 thousand).  Speaking of revisions, April was revised up by 11 thousand jobs bringing two-month revisions higher by 16 thousand. Private sector job growth was 74 thousand which was…

ADP reported the first month of private sector job losses in over two years this morning and that’s rekindled hopes for a July rate cut, and it also increases the intrigue for tomorrow’s BLS jobs report. Toss in some political intrigue into the mix with the House now attempting to pass what the Senate sent…

In a bid to restart trade negotiations with the US, Canada’s relented on the digital services tax levied against large US tech firms and that has markets in a risk-on mood to start the week, but Treasuries are playing along as well. Away from the trade news, the Senate will try to pass its version…