Correspondent Blog

Meeting Highlights  As expected, the Fed kept the funds rate range unchanged at 4.25% – 4.50%, and the statement acknowledged the twin tariff risks of possibly higher inflation and unemployment have risen. Other than that, there was little in the way of substantive changes to the statement from March. The decision was unanimous.   In…

News that the US and China are indeed in trade negotiations has put a risk-on mood into early trading, even with the FOMC rate decision on tap for this afternoon (2pm ET). With no expectation of a change in monetary policy, traders are taking full advantage of the trade talk news to push equities, but…

April nonfarm payrolls rose 177 thousand, easily beating the 133 thousand expected and 185 thousand in March (revised down from an initial 228 thousand).  The average monthly gain over the last 12 months is 152 thousand, so April was slightly better than the average. Speaking of revisions, February was revised down by 15 thousand jobs…

The initial estimate of first quarter GDP was negative (-0.3% YoY), owing to the huge front-running in import purchases, but the hotter-than-expected inflation numbers from the report also concern traders as it may limit the Fed’s response function to a slowing economy. As a result, we’re seeing an early risk-off trade that is keeping Treasury…

It’s a busy week of first-tier economic reports, headlined by Friday’s April release of nonfarm payrolls. The question is, with much of the data coming pre-tariff impact, will it matter much to investors as tariff “negotiations” continue in the background? Equity futures are quiet as is Treasury trading as the data flow doesn’t get started…

A quiet start to Friday has Treasuries trading similarly while equities are finding a bit of profit-taking in play after a couple strong up days for stocks. The data calendar is limited and that has investors looking ahead to next week’s deluge of employment numbers, assuming the headlines from DC don’t upset the apple cart….

With President Trump shifting his comments and tone to a more market-friendly stance regarding Fed Chair Jay Powell’s future and China tariffs, markets are feeling frisky, both Treasuries and equities. We’ll see if that positive tone remains throughout the day. Currently, the 10yr is yielding 4.28%, down 10 bps on the day, while the 2yr…

The question of Fed independence is the next worry for markets, and it has generated a risk-off tone as trading begins. President Trump’s comments last week expressing unhappiness with Fed Chair Powell and the claim he can oust him if he wants to, has unnerved financial markets already dealing with non-stop tariff news. It’s a…

Treasury yields are mixed and quiet this morning after digesting a solid Retail Sales report but with nagging questions over how much is tariff front-running vs. organic buying? We characterize the report as solid and broad-based (more than just autos contributed), and it gives the Fed another solid hard data number to point to when…

Bond Portfolio Trends: First Quarter 2025 Background Beginning in May 2012, we started tracking portfolio trends of our bond accounting customers here at SouthState|DuncanWilliams. At present, we account for over 130 client portfolios with a combined book value of $12.4 billion (not including SouthState Bank’s portfolio), or $95 million on average per portfolio. Twelve months…

Treasury yields are moving lower this morning as some tariff angst is removed but by no means for good. Despite the move lower today, yields have certainly engaged in a bearish trend of late. We were off last week (what a week to be away) and when we last reported on April 4th,  the 2yr…

March nonfarm payrolls rose 228 thousand, easily beating the 140 thousand expectation and 117 thousand in February (revised down from an initial 151 thousand). January was revised down by 16 thousand jobs bringing the two-month revisions to down 48 thousand. Private sector job growth was solid at 209 thousand which was well clear of the…