Weekly Market Update

Treasury yields are a touch lower this morning as a deluge of reports start to roll in. The big one, however, core PCE, will come at 10am ET so expect some further moves in yields before thoughts of Thanksgiving take over. Currently, the 10yr Treasury is yielding 4.26%, down 4bps on the day, while the 2yr…

Treasury yields are lower this  morning as both equities and bonds are applauding Trump’s Treasury Secretary pick (more on that below). With a holiday-shortened week and no data on Friday, the incoming information will be stuffed into the first three days this week, especially Wednesday. Currently, the 10yr Treasury is yielding 4.30%, down 10bps on…

Contractionary eurozone PMIs, both in services and manufacturing, have Treasury yields a touch lower this morning as the divergence between the US’s growth profile and the eurozone’s struggles widens. Even the UK saw its PMIs disappoint expectations while the services side clings to a 50.0 reading, right at the dividing line between expansion and contraction….

Treasury yields are a touch higher this morning as some of the fight-to-safety trades yesterday in the wake of Russian nuclear saber-rattling has cooled some today with Putin expressing interest in a Trump peace plan with Ukraine (more on that below). As candidates continue to be named for various positions in the upcoming new Administration,…

Treasury yields are mixed this morning with the short end trading in the green while longer durations are seeing slightly higher yields. With new economic data on the light side this week, trading will be dominated by news from the incoming Administration, and we also get market bell weather Nvidia reporting after the close on…

Treasury yields are higher this morning as a hawkishly-received speech from Chair Powell yesterday mixes with decent retail sales numbers and hotter-than-expected import/export prices. It all has the market rethinking a December rate cut, although we still think it happens. Currently, the 10yr Treasury is yielding 4.48%, up 6bps on the day, while the 2yr…

Treasury yields are lower on the day as some bets were circulating that CPI would come hotter-than-expected. It didn’t and that led to a dip in yields. While CPI didn’t surprise to the upside, it didn’t show much improvement either and that will have traders marking down rate cut expectations in 2025 (more on that…

Was it sell the rumor, buy the fact? After the initial run-up in yields in anticipation of a Trump win, yields are consolidating at lower levels as perhaps a rethink is occurring and an acknowledgement that any change in policy, inflationary or not, will take time to work through the economy. Call it a second…

Well, that didn’t take long. With markets bracing for the possibility of days of election uncertainty, Trump won somewhat handily, and it looks like his coattails will bring along a sweep of Congress enabling little resistance to his most ambitious policy proposals. The kneejerk reaction to those campaign proposals is seen as inflationary and that…

Improved polling results for Harris over the weekend have investors pulling back some on the Trump Trade that had dominated the market over the last couple weeks and that has Treasuries in the green as this consequential week opens for business.  While everyone will be glad to see the event risk of the election conclude…

October nonfarm payrolls rose only 12 thousand vs. 101 thousand expected and 223 thousand in September (revised down from an initial 254 thousand). August was also revised down by 81 thousand jobs to 78 thousand, and after last month’s upward revisions this month returns to the year-long trend of downward revisions.  Meanwhile, private sector jobs…

We’re seeing a bit of curve flattening action this morning as long-end Treasury yields are a touch lower as a solid third quarter GDP print, with friendly inflation numbers, mixes with an October ADP Employment Change report that was hotter-than-expected which is keeping the short-end under pressure. Currently, the 10yr Treasury is yielding 4.23%, down…