Weekly Market Update

With the government shutdown entering its third day, the data blackout continues with the absence of the BLS Nonfarm Payrolls Report for September. We have managed, however, to round up some alternative data on the matter and discuss the findings below. Suffice it to say, labor market momentum continues to slow, but it’s in no…

While we may not see a BLS Nonfarm Payrolls Report on Friday, the ADP Employment Report provided plenty of labor-related news to keep everyone busy in the meantime. ADP surprised with job losses for September, mostly due to benchmarking revisions stemming from the same report that generated the BLS revisions for August. We discuss the…

Angst over a possible shutdown is growing, and the initial reaction is bond bullish. Treasury yields are modestly lower this morning with a deluge of labor market reporting due this week, if the government can manage to stay open and issue said reports. That’s a big if that we discuss in more detail below. Currently,…

Treasury yields are finding it hard reading the latest Personal Income and Spending Report. While the inflation data came in as expected, the solid income and spending figures argue again, like the reports yesterday, that numerous rate cuts may not be needed. Odds of two more cuts this year are down to approximately 60% vs….

Treasury yields are waffling around unchanged this morning as a light calendar and a modest risk-on tone to equities open the morning. A 5yr Treasury auction awaits this afternoon and while the last three 5yr auctions have tailed, so far in September coupon auctions are five for five in stopping through the bid so one…

There is a bit of a risk-off tone to start the week and that has Treasury yields drifting slightly lower, but with little conviction. After a week dominated by the FOMC meeting this week doesn’t have anything that can rival that event, but plenty of Fed speakers will be heading out to various venues to…

Meeting Highlights  As widely anticipated, the Fed cut the funds rate 25bps to lower the target rate range to 4.00% – 4.25%.  The updated rate forecast, or dot plot, has another 50bps in rate cuts in 2025, up 25bps from the June forecast.  They did, however, keep the number of expected cuts in 2026 at…

Treasury yields are sharply unchanged this morning as investors mark time until the FOMC rate decision at 2pm ET.  While a 25bps rate cut is the overwhelming consensus, it’s the details in the updated Dot Plot, economic summary, statement, and press conference that will shape trading for the near-term. Currently, the 10yr is yielding 4.03%,…

Treasury yields are a tick lower this morning as a soft Empire Manufacturing number kicks off the week’s new information. The action is likely to be limited until we’re past the event risk known as the FOMC Rate Decision, due on Wednesday at 2pm ET. We review our expectations for the meeting below, but spoiler…

Treasury yields are ticking higher this morning with little to drive them as most of the known event risk for the week has passed, and eyes now turn to next Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision.  The CPI report yesterday, while not great, was good enough to green light a rate cut, but truth be told the…

Treasury yields are a tick lower this morning as the cooler PPI report for August paves the way for a possibly friendly CPI.  The lowered BLS benchmark revision to job totals from the four quarters ending March didn’t prompt a durable move lower in yields yesterday, perhaps that news was telegraphed, not to mention fairly…

Treasury yields are a tick lower this morning as the soft August jobs report continues to reverberate across the financial landscape. In addition, the BLS is expected to release benchmark revisions to 2024 jobs data on Tuesday with another 600k – 800k in downward revisions expected. Thus, the weak jobs picture could get a little…