Weekly Market Update

With President Trump shifting his comments and tone to a more market-friendly stance regarding Fed Chair Jay Powell’s future and China tariffs, markets are feeling frisky, both Treasuries and equities. We’ll see if that positive tone remains throughout the day. Currently, the 10yr is yielding 4.28%, down 10 bps on the day, while the 2yr…

The question of Fed independence is the next worry for markets, and it has generated a risk-off tone as trading begins. President Trump’s comments last week expressing unhappiness with Fed Chair Powell and the claim he can oust him if he wants to, has unnerved financial markets already dealing with non-stop tariff news. It’s a…

Treasury yields are mixed and quiet this morning after digesting a solid Retail Sales report but with nagging questions over how much is tariff front-running vs. organic buying? We characterize the report as solid and broad-based (more than just autos contributed), and it gives the Fed another solid hard data number to point to when…

Bond Portfolio Trends: First Quarter 2025 Background Beginning in May 2012, we started tracking portfolio trends of our bond accounting customers here at SouthState|DuncanWilliams. At present, we account for over 130 client portfolios with a combined book value of $12.4 billion (not including SouthState Bank’s portfolio), or $95 million on average per portfolio. Twelve months…

Treasury yields are moving lower this morning as some tariff angst is removed but by no means for good. Despite the move lower today, yields have certainly engaged in a bearish trend of late. We were off last week (what a week to be away) and when we last reported on April 4th,  the 2yr…

March nonfarm payrolls rose 228 thousand, easily beating the 140 thousand expectation and 117 thousand in February (revised down from an initial 151 thousand). January was revised down by 16 thousand jobs bringing the two-month revisions to down 48 thousand. Private sector job growth was solid at 209 thousand which was well clear of the…

Treasury yields are near unchanged this morning, with a slight downward bias, as investors await the latest tariff details. Yes, it’s “Liberation Day” with the President scheduled to give a Rose Garden address at 4pm ET, hopefully providing more details around the reciprocal tariff plans. In the meantime, the data flow this week continues with…

Treasury yields are moving lower this morning as tariff uncertainty continues to weigh on investors and the risk-off tone is contributing to strong Treasury bids. With the so-called “Liberation Day” approaching on Wednesday, and details still being fleshed out, the better part of valor seems to be sitting it out in Treasuries, or cash. Despite…

Treasury yields are lifting higher on the news that the April 2nd reciprocal tariffs may be more surgical in nature and not the broad-based salvo that some had feared. That has the market in a tentative risk-on tone as a consequence. We’ll see how that survives the day. Currently, the 10yr Treasury is yielding 4.30%,…

With a bare data calendar, the market will turn to a pair of Fed speakers with Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee and NY Fed President John Williams offering their views today. Coming so soon after the FOMC meeting we doubt we’ll hear a strikingly different message from Powell’s on Wednesday, but they are two of…

Meeting Highlights  As widely anticipated the Fed held the target rate range to 4.25% – 4.50%.  The updated rate forecast, or dot plot, sees 50bps in rate cuts in 2025, same as the December forecast, but only two members see more than two cuts while in December five members saw three or more cuts. Two…

With no reports on offer this morning, the market will try to remain awake until the 2pm ET FOMC announcement and subsequent press conference. The risk-off tone in equities resumed once more yesterday, and that allowed Treasuries to rally a bit, but the moves were limited with the Fed meeting looming. Treasury yields are near…