Weekly Market Update

June PCE Comes as Expected Keeping Hopes for a September Rate Cut Alive and Well Treasury yields are lower this morning on the back of another positive read on inflation, this time it was the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation series. While coming in mostly as expected, it continues the theme of cooler inflation readings since…

Is Peer Pressure Building at the Fed? Treasury yields are lower this morning as disappointing PMI numbers from Europe added to the rate-cutting case on the Continent and it’s putting a little peer pressure on the Fed to join the party. In that regard, former NY Fed President Bill Dudley is adding to that sentiment…

GDP and PCE Vie for Attention in a Week Sure to be Full of Political News Treasury yields are a bit lower this morning as investors process the latest political developments, and they are treating it rather calmly with little volatility. We discuss the political developments below, but for now the market is treating it…

Increasing Jobless Claims May Signal Another Softish Jobs Report Treasury yields are a bit higher this morning as investors process the latest Fed speak, continue to handicap election scenarios, and look ahead to the weekend. With no new economic reports due today it will be one of watching Fed speak and election headlines for direction,…

Fed Speak Continues to Preach Patience Treasury yields are a bit higher this morning as investors weigh the latest Fed speak that continues to preach patience, and the stronger-than-expected retails sales numbers do give the Fed some backing for their stance in waiting on more positive inflation data for a possible September rate cut. Currently, the…

Weekend’s Events have Market in Risk-On Tone Treasury yields are higher this morning as investors process the weekend’s violent events in a risk-on tone with the fallout pointing to increased odds of a Trump election, not to mention increasing odds for down ballot races as well. (more on that below). Currently, the 10yr note is yielding…

June Jobs Report Reflects Some Softening in the Labor Market  Nonfarm payroll gains for June were 206 thousand vs. 190 thousand expected and 218 thousand in May (revised down from an initial 272 thousand). April was revised lower by 57 thousand jobs, bringing the two-month revisions to -111 thousand and that continues a year-long trend…

Examining Bond Portfolio Trends: Second Quarter 2024 Background Beginning in May 2012, we started tracking  portfolio trends of our bond accounting customers here at SouthState|DuncanWilliams.  At present, we account for over 130 client portfolios with a combined book value of $13.8 billion (not including SouthState Bank’s portfolio), or $106 million average per portfolio.  Twelve months…

Treasury Yields Dip on Softening Job Numbers Treasury yields are taking a breather from their post-debate climb as some softer economic numbers are increasing odds of a September rate cut (more on that below). Currently, the 10yr note is yielding 4.40%, down 3bp on the day, and the 2yr is yielding 4.73%, down 1bp on the…

Politics and Jobs Headline Holiday-Shortened Week Treasury yields are higher this morning as investors await a ton of first-tier data in this holiday-shortened week and as they attempt to handicap the impact of the latest political events, both here and abroad (more on that below). Currently, the 10yr note is yielding 4.44%, up 4bp on the…

PCE Inflation for May Comes in Cool, Keeping Alive Hopes for a September Cut The highly anticipated core PCE inflation reading for May came in at 0.1% (0.08% unrounded), matching expectations, and bringing the YoY rate down to 2.6% from 2.8%, also as expected and the lowest in three years. Meanwhile, the 3-month annualized rate…

Market Waiting on Friday’s PCE Inflation and Spending Numbers An upside surprise in Australian CPI (4.0% vs. 3.6% prior) has global sovereign yields higher and Treasuries are no exception, but some of the upward move is also consolidation of the recent rally. A 5yr note auction this afternoon ($70bn) will also weigh on the market,…