Weekly Market Update

News that China and the US have agreed to a series of trade-related deals, in anticipation of a Thursday meeting between Trump and Xi, has risk markets heading higher as Treasuries back up a bit on the positive news. The devil always lurks in the details of these grandiose announcements, but for now the market…

Treasuries are waffling around unchanged levels this morning with equities heading higher on the back of a delayed but better-than-expected September CPI report. The cooler inflation numbers seal a rate cut next week and pave the way for another in December. The report was about all the Fed could ask for, but the hawks will…

The shutdown enters its 21st day marking the second longest on record. The record-holding 2018-2019 shutdown appears in danger of falling as Polymarkets is betting it goes well into November and Congressional action on the matter seems lifeless (see graph below). By the way, November 5th would mark a new record. In the meantime, we…

Treasuries are waffling around unchanged levels this morning with equity futures pointing higher and risk sentiment improving.  With the government shutdown entering its 19th day and firmly eyeing the 34-day record, we’ll be once again left to regional Fed reports and the varied mix of privately issued offerings. We will get, however, something resembling the…

The third week of the shutdown begins, and with missed paychecks for federal workers having already started military checks are due today. Treasury Secretary Bessent made mention of altering payment priorities to allow for the military payroll to be made, but that remains a wish rather than a reality. It could be, as in the…

Bond Portfolio Trends: Third Quarter 2025 Background Beginning in May 2012, we started tracking  portfolio trends of our bond accounting customers here at SouthState|DuncanWilliams.  At present, we account for over 130 client portfolios with a combined book value of $12.4 billion (not including SouthState Bank’s portfolio), or $96 million on average per portfolio.  Twelve months…

It’s day eight of the government shutdown and with missed paychecks for federal workers (10/10) and military (10/15) approaching perhaps some signs of life towards a resolution will appear soon. As the information blackout continues, we’ll at least have the FOMC minutes from September’s meeting to digest this afternoon.  We’re most interested in any discussion…

The government shutdown enters its sixth day with little sign of progress between the parties, so the data blackout continues into this week. To be fair, even with a fully functioning government in DC the offerings would have been sparse. We have managed, however, to round up some alternative data on the matter and discuss…

With the government shutdown entering its third day, the data blackout continues with the absence of the BLS Nonfarm Payrolls Report for September. We have managed, however, to round up some alternative data on the matter and discuss the findings below. Suffice it to say, labor market momentum continues to slow, but it’s in no…

While we may not see a BLS Nonfarm Payrolls Report on Friday, the ADP Employment Report provided plenty of labor-related news to keep everyone busy in the meantime. ADP surprised with job losses for September, mostly due to benchmarking revisions stemming from the same report that generated the BLS revisions for August. We discuss the…

Angst over a possible shutdown is growing, and the initial reaction is bond bullish. Treasury yields are modestly lower this morning with a deluge of labor market reporting due this week, if the government can manage to stay open and issue said reports. That’s a big if that we discuss in more detail below. Currently,…

Treasury yields are finding it hard reading the latest Personal Income and Spending Report. While the inflation data came in as expected, the solid income and spending figures argue again, like the reports yesterday, that numerous rate cuts may not be needed. Odds of two more cuts this year are down to approximately 60% vs….