Weekly Market Update

While we don’t have a BLS Nonfarm Payrolls Report today we will have the preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Survey for November. Excited? Well, me neither. Also, while the Supreme Court hearing didn’t go particularly well for the Trump administration, it will most likely be a few weeks before a decision is handed down, and…

While we won’t have a BLS Nonfarm Payrolls Report on Friday, for the second straight month, the privately issued ADP Employment Report provided plenty of labor-related news this morning. ADP, after surprising with job losses in September, beat expectations in October (read more below). The ISM Services Index for October will be the next report…

As the shutdown enters its 34th day, and soon to be a new record this week, the biggest event may be in the court room where on Wednesday the Supreme Court will hear arguments on whether Trump’s emergency tariff authority is constitutional. While hearings on the issue will be Wednesday, a decision is most likely…

Treasuries are treading water this morning as another earnings boost in the AI space has equities on the front foot as October ends. Amazon beat earnings yesterday, backed by its cloud business, with that familiar segment leading the equity market higher this morning. Next week should be Jobs Week, but other than ADP and private…

News that China and the US have agreed to a series of trade-related deals, in anticipation of a Thursday meeting between Trump and Xi, has risk markets heading higher as Treasuries back up a bit on the positive news. The devil always lurks in the details of these grandiose announcements, but for now the market…

Treasuries are waffling around unchanged levels this morning with equities heading higher on the back of a delayed but better-than-expected September CPI report. The cooler inflation numbers seal a rate cut next week and pave the way for another in December. The report was about all the Fed could ask for, but the hawks will…

The shutdown enters its 21st day marking the second longest on record. The record-holding 2018-2019 shutdown appears in danger of falling as Polymarkets is betting it goes well into November and Congressional action on the matter seems lifeless (see graph below). By the way, November 5th would mark a new record. In the meantime, we…

Treasuries are waffling around unchanged levels this morning with equity futures pointing higher and risk sentiment improving.  With the government shutdown entering its 19th day and firmly eyeing the 34-day record, we’ll be once again left to regional Fed reports and the varied mix of privately issued offerings. We will get, however, something resembling the…

The third week of the shutdown begins, and with missed paychecks for federal workers having already started military checks are due today. Treasury Secretary Bessent made mention of altering payment priorities to allow for the military payroll to be made, but that remains a wish rather than a reality. It could be, as in the…

Bond Portfolio Trends: Third Quarter 2025 Background Beginning in May 2012, we started tracking  portfolio trends of our bond accounting customers here at SouthState|DuncanWilliams.  At present, we account for over 130 client portfolios with a combined book value of $12.4 billion (not including SouthState Bank’s portfolio), or $96 million on average per portfolio.  Twelve months…

It’s day eight of the government shutdown and with missed paychecks for federal workers (10/10) and military (10/15) approaching perhaps some signs of life towards a resolution will appear soon. As the information blackout continues, we’ll at least have the FOMC minutes from September’s meeting to digest this afternoon.  We’re most interested in any discussion…

The government shutdown enters its sixth day with little sign of progress between the parties, so the data blackout continues into this week. To be fair, even with a fully functioning government in DC the offerings would have been sparse. We have managed, however, to round up some alternative data on the matter and discuss…