Weekly Market Update

  Economic News The December Employment Report is out and it missed the headline expectation of 50 thousand new jobs with a notable decline of 140 thousand, the first decline since April. Partially offsetting that was a 135 thousand upward revision to the prior two months. The private sector saw 95 thousand jobs cut versus…

The results of the twin Senate runoffs in Georgia were as close as advertised but Democrat Rev. Raphael Warnock has been declared the winner in his race while Democrat Jon Ossoff is leading by 16,000 votes in his race with 98% of the vote counted. His lead over David Perdue is less than 0.5% so…

Georgia Elections and Jobs As a new year opens, investors will be fixated on the political once again. First, the Georgia senatorial run-off election concludes tomorrow but the closeness of the polls indicates it may be Wednesday or later before we know the final results. A win by one or both Republicans will keep that…

We’re closing in on Christmas but with a half-day tomorrow and trading desks already thinning out, today is really the last consequential trading day of the week. Also, because of the approaching holiday, we get a ton of economic reports dumped on us today from jobless claims, to personal income and spending (more on that…

Stimulus 2.0 Passes While Virus Mutates This holiday-shortened week opens with Congress finally reaching an agreement on a second stimulus bill and it should be voted on today with the president signing it into law soon thereafter.  The latest sticking point over ongoing funding for the Fed’s emergency lending programs was ironed out over the…

With the Fed meeting behind us, and not much movement off of it, the market turns its complete attention to negotiations over a Stimulus 2.0 Bill. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said late yesterday a deal is close at hand, but several sticking points remain, as they always do in these things. The nearly $900…

The Fed’s last meeting of 2020 concludes today, and while there will be no rate change there is still plenty that the Fed watchers and investors will be mulling over in the statement, press conference, and updated economic and rate forecasts. We discuss more of what we expect from the Fed in the next section….

Stimulus 2.0 and Fed Meeting Highlight the Week If there’s going to be a Stimulus 2.0 before year-end it has to come together this week unless members of Congress want to hang around Capitol Hill for Christmas. Senate Majority Leader McConnell stated late last week that there is no way forward in the negotiations but…

Negotiations over a Stimulus 2.0 Bill have stalled again and that has the risk-off trade gaining this morning and Treasuries rallying. Senate Majority Leader McConnell said late yesterday he didn’t see a path forward to an agreement and that sent stocks sliding. There are three separate packages being floated but all sit around $900 billion…

Treasuries have entered a listless trading period and that’s likely to continue until we get some resolution over: Stimulus 2.0, Senate majority, and clarity on vaccine take-up and virus case counts. Save for the stimulus bill possibly, none of these issues will be resolved this week, or this month frankly. So expect the listless trading…

Stimulus 2.0 and a Quiet Fed While we get November CPI this week, and are left to ponder the jobs report from last week, the market will be focused on developments surrounding the $908 billion stimulus bill that made some headway last week. With more PPP funds, $300/week of unemployment money, and funds for state…

This is jobs week and also with a pair of ISM reports we’ll get a pretty good feel for the economic activity in November. That’s all well and good but the market is more interested in the fate and look of a stimulus bill and that has bonds on the back foot as traders bet…