Weekly Market Update

The market is being buffeted this morning by news of a split between Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Fed Chair Powell on the future of several emergency lending programs. Fed Chair Powell wants the programs, namely the corporate credit facility, the muni liquidity program, and Main Street program carried over through year-end; whereas, Mnuchin says the…

We’ve mentioned the recent bi-polar nature of stocks and it has been on full display this week. The Monday rally  was fueled in no small part by the positive vaccine news from Moderna (95% effective). In the words of Dr. Fauci the results couldn’t have been better. The Moderna vaccine joins similarly positive Pfizer results…

Virus Trends Regain Spotlight With the election results coming into clearer focus, even though the Senate remains uncertain until Georgia’s twin run-offs on January 5, for now investors are assuming the Senate will stay in Republican hands and that has their attention returning squarely to the virus. The outlook on vaccines, case trends and hospitalizations…

It’s Friday the 13th in the year 2020, so what can possibly go wrong today? Just giving you fare warning to keep your eyes open and your head up.   From the market’s perspective it’s become somewhat bi-polar in trading around positive vaccine news one day with a risk-on rally only to be reminded of record-breaking…

Election Aftermath Positive news from Pfizer on a vaccine that could treat 90% of virus cases has global stocks rallying and bonds on the back foot. A piece too on 60 Minutes about the government’s military-led effort to manage distribution has also helped the risk-on mood this morning. The 10-year Treasury has backed up to…

  Economic News The October Employment Report is out  and it beat the headline expectation, along with a notable decline in the unemployment rate. For the month,  638 thousand jobs were created versus the 580 thousand median estimate. Private sector gains were even larger at 906 thousand as government jobs fell by 268  thousand as…

to win) but the make or break states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania remain out with Arizona flipping to Biden and Georgia still counting and close. Tabulating absentees could take a couple days and given the closeness in those states it could be tomorrow Friday before a victor is called. Meanwhile, Biden has just moved…

The Election and Other Stuff We’ve finally arrived at election week and tomorrow’s results will certainly have an impact on trading not only this week but for some time to come. The one scenario that probably is prone to generate the most volatility would be an inconclusive result on election night. If that were to…

Halloween is upon us and we mark time until the Tuesday elections and wonder what else 2020 will throw at us?  It has been a year of many more tricks than treats so we wait to see what the year will throw at us next. Speaking of the recent risk-off move, some point to the…

Will Treasury Yields Continue Higher? While this week brings some heavy hitting reports like the first look at third quarter GDP and September Personal Income and Spending the biggest question will be whether Treasury yields continue to drift higher settling into a slightly higher plane of the well-worn range that we’ve seen since March.  Some…

With Stimulus 2.0 now a decidedly after-election event, if even then, the market has turned squarely to virus trends and those haven’t been good.  Combine that with no stimulus anytime soon and that has led to a decent bout of risk-off action this week. As case counts and hospitalization rates continue to increase, combined with…

Economic NewsInitial Jobless ClaimsCopper/Gold Ratio Points to Higher YieldsMarket Rates   Economic News The last of the presidential debates was held Thursday night and while not as explosive as the first debate did have its moments, but probably nothing that will alter the trend in polling. That polling has Biden leading in most of the…